March 6, 2014

Colorado GOP Straw Poll Results

To its discredit, Colorado's Republican Party chose to NOT conduct a statewide straw poll on any of the primary races in 2014. What are they afraid of, I wonder? To their credit, however, many counties chose to conduct straw polls independently. My county of Weld was one of them as was Douglas County, whose website has conveniently aggregated all of the county by county straw polls from:

Douglas, Broomfield, Pueblo (partial), Yuma, Larimer (partial), Adams (partial) Montrose, Weld, Teller (governor only), and Boulder.

Cory Gardner ran away with the US Senate preference poll with 83.6 percent to Hill and Baumgardner's 8.4 and 5.2, respectively.

The Governor's contest was, a contest:

Gessler - 30.3%
Beauprez - 22.5%
Tancredo - 15.7%
Kopp - 14.0%
Brophy - 11.9%
House - 3.6%

Others - 2%

My county seems to prefer Beauprez with 23.2%, followed by Gessler at 20.3%, Tancredo at 19.9%, Kopp at 15.7% and Brophy with 13.6%. House fared very poorly in Weld coming in behind Roni Bell Sylvester, who's 77 multi-county votes included 42 in Weld County.

CO Governor CO Governor CO Senate Colorado Posted by JohnGalt at March 6, 2014 12:41 PM

Here are my gut feelings about this race:

Tancredo is running for two reasons. First, to reestablish himself as a Republican after the 2012 train wreck and second, to put himself in a position to endorse another candidate when he withdraws. The Power Broker play.

Brophy is running because RMGO hand picked him and offered to bankroll his campaign. His statement that "If I get 30% at State Assembly I'll go on to the primary, if I don't I'll go home and spend time with my family - either way I win" tells me he's not as committed as Gessler has proven to be.

House is running to establish statewide name ID, perhaps for a future campaign.

Beauprez polled so well here, as a write-in on most ballots I suspect, that he may decide to "volunteer" as a candidate at State Assembly. He may well boost his showing in the binding vote by delegates to 30 percent, from the 22.5 percent write-in by general caucus goers.

There are four names on the 2014 Primary Election Candidate Petition List: Tancredo, House, Sylvester and Beauprez. Sylvester has a snowball's chance. As does, I believe, House. So at worst, it will be a 3-way race. Gessler, Beauprez, Tancredo. I expect Tancredo to withdraw and endorse Beauprez.

Posted by: johngalt at March 8, 2014 11:25 AM | What do you think? [1]