Comments: Can We Revisit "Unconditional Talks?"

Be sure to read John Hinderaker's post on why Obama is awol.

Damned shame. I got into a heated discussion with the resident liberals at work over it.

What started it was "they're protesting because they saw the hope & change that Obama brought to our country."

Got my blood boiling.

Posted by AlexC at June 20, 2009 2:01 PM

I'm coming to believe that Obama is not actually AWOL on the Iranian uprising. This is quite a turnaround for me since posting that Obama may actually want Ahmadinejad to remain in power as a fellow member of the Hugo Chavez Fan Club.

As I learn more about the state of Iranian politics in recent years it seems most likely that Mousavi and Rafsanjani, original members of the Islamic Revolution 30 years ago, are part of a widespread effort to change Iran's course away from a suicidal confrontation with Israel. It also seems plausible that the CIA may be aiding their effort. While I give Obama zero credit for initiating it I can quite easily believe he would support and continue a clandestine effort in Iran that was launched sometime during the prior administration.

Gunny Bob Newman opined on FNC this afternoon that he doesn't have any knowledge but he hopes that the CIA is active in Iran and if so that the President is playing it exactly right. Don't be too outspoken or else you'll give the government hardliners cover for even more forceful repression, and don't be silent and give the impression you are up to something.
If the CIA is pulling strings then they're also advising the President what actions to take publicly. This would explain to me how he seems to know what he's doing, since I have no confidence he actually does.

Personally I don't think it makes a great difference how much Obama says, the rebellion seems to have reached a self-sustaining stage and will run its course regardless. Newman thinks there's a 1 in 5 chance of regime change. From all I've observed I'd have thought it was better than that, but even 1 in 5 is darned good. Krauthammer has it right - The fall of the Islamic Republic "would do to Islamism what the collapse of the Soviet Union did to communism - leave it forever spent and discredited." Such outcomes aren't easy to come by.

And to those who say Iranians are protesting in the streets against their government because they covet the "hope and change" supposedly brought to us by Obama I would counter, "No, what they actually see is the prospect of Israeli mushroom clouds outside their windows if they continue on their present course." For all but devoted aspirants to martyrdom that's enough to prompt a movement for REAL change.

Posted by johngalt at June 20, 2009 6:51 PM
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