Comments: Oh, is there an election tomorrow?

Sabato Rabbito. You can't believe anything he says - his predictions come from a Crystal Ball! We clearly need a dose of Michael Barone who predicts, based on fundamentals, Romney in a landslide. (That's my word. Barone's is "handily.")

Posted by johngalt at November 5, 2012 1:40 PM

I was quite surprised by Barone's predictions. I have successfully predicted every presidential election since 1980 and I HAVE NO IDEA what's going to happen. I am quite disconcerted right this minute. "Too close to call" is not in my usual vocabulary, but...

Posted by Ellis Wyatt at November 5, 2012 2:25 PM

I see that my work here is not yet done!

It's commonly known that the 2008 election had 8% more Democrat turnout than Republican. A Rasmussen poll predicted this. In 2010 Rasmussen predicted the Dems would still have an advantage, but only 3 points. In actuality it was +0 or "even." In 2012 Rasmussen predicts, with an even larger sample size, GOP +6.

Add to this that every poll shows unaffiliateds breaking for Romney by double digits and the only way Obama can win is through election fraud that would make Hugo Chavez jealous. It's possible though - the media and their polls are already singing from the [Dem] party songbook.

Posted by johngalt at November 5, 2012 2:35 PM

As for the article that is the subject of this post, it makes a point that in retrospect has been mostly absent from the campaign:

On Tuesday, Americans will go to the polls to choose whether or not to nationalize their health-care system.

And the fine article is available free in its entireity. It seems that WSJ wants to make sure as many voters as possible read it.

Posted by johngalt at November 5, 2012 3:21 PM

The Barone prediction is based on Romney winning by a tiny sliver in a lot of places. The winner-take-all Electoral College magnifies hair-breadth popular vote victories.

Posted by Boulder Refugee at November 5, 2012 3:58 PM

True, which makes elections more strategic than in a pure popular vote. Some call this "disenfrancisement" (of east coast Republicans or southern or mountain-west Democrats.) I call it laboratories of Democracy.

If those hair-breadth differences fall for Obama then he could win the electoral college with a minority of the popular vote total.

Posted by johngalt at November 5, 2012 5:08 PM
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