November 10, 2014
Politichicks.com offers a look back at the 2014 Colorado Governor's election titled "How To Lose an Election in 10 Easy Steps (& why Beauprez lost the CO Gov's race in a GOP swing year)"
It's worth a read. You can probably guess from the headline that said chicks would have preferred Rep. Beauprez to connect with the grassroots and energize the base and refrain from bringing in establishment GOP figures like Governors Christie and Jeb Bush.
Or . . . perhaps . . . "Ten Reasons to not Nominate Rep. Bob Beauprez" might have been a better -- if less provocative -- headline. I've come neither to praise nor bury Bob. He is a good man whom I was proud to vote for. He self-funded and freed resources for expensive races for Senate and CO-6. He doesn't have Hick-arisma but is likeable. He pulled no Todd Akins; he hurt none on the ticket.
And he made a race. Yes it was a GOP year, but Colorado hands out gubernatorial second terms like ribbons at the Preschool field day. And the Governor remains likable, popular with moderates, and has some actual successes in the flood recovery. So thank you for getting in the arena, Congressman.
But. Those of us not wanting an establishment candidate should have a voice before the loss next time. And the answer is to demand a culling of the field before the primary. I met Steve House at a LOTR-F event and would have chosen him above all others. Yet his deeply shaded equine-ness was obvious. I asked him whether he expected the field to narrow before the primary. At the time I was worried about Rep. Tancredo who would have collected less than 15% of the approbations dealt Rep. Beauprez above.
He thought so. We all thought so. But it never happened. And Rep. Beauprez won the nomination with 30%. I would like to have seen the establishment push out Tancredo and the Tea Party push out House, Kopp, and Brophy. Then we would have a Tea Party vs. Establishment primary of Beauprez vs, SecState Gessler. And I would vow to support the winner.
But we need to focus on whom we nominate and not changing their stripes after.
Posted by John Kranz at 12:33 PM
| Comments (6)
Good analysis on an interesting topic. The Politichicks article was okay too.
Personally, I'm surprised I never heard a rumor that Bob's campaign was intentionally inept, to serve as a foil for Cory Gardner's "New Kind of Republican" campaign.
Also personally, I wondered if Tancredo would have succeeded where Beauprez failed? I know jk prefers Hick to Tanc, but at least we could have had the bully pulpit on our side, and a favorable pen hand at the governor's desk.
And, had Tancredo lost, it might have shown that hard-line policies on illegal immigration are political suicide. (Or, had he won, shown the opposite.)
I was pleased when Gessler announced early. Then came the parade of special-interest self-nominations. [first comment]
But, in the end, at least the "old guard" Republican didn't take the whole party down with him.
I have evolved in four years and would have voted for Rep. Tancredo over Gov. Hickenlooper.
But my objection is that had Tom been on the ticket, the insufficient War on Women would have been replaced with the War on Hispanics which might have been more effective unless Tom exhibited perfect discipline. Is that his strong suit?
My recurring nightmare, had Tancredo been the candidate, was endless TV ads with his voice saying, "We should bomb Mecca."
At least he now has a hobby:
If you follow Tom Tancredo you know he makes it clear where he stands on people, like Colorado Republican Chair Ryan Call (dislikes him), and places, like Mecca (bomb it).
So, even as Republicans are still warm from hugging each other, it's no surprise that Tancredo is launching a new campaign to stop New Jersey Gov. Chis Christie's presidential aspirations.
Tancredo doesn't like Christie, and you can't blame him. You recall Tancredo's promising path to the Colorado governor's office was upended this summer by his own party, through a vicious ad campaign orchestrated surreptitiously by the Republican Governors' Association, which is chaired by... Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.
Tancredo is fighing back now with his "Stop Chris Christie PAC."
Always "fighting back!" But always at . . . Republicans.
As Christie is a RINO I consider it a rear-guard action.
But I admit it comes of as churlish and self-serving.
A "Nominate a Constitutional Conservative PAC" could provide the same action with less churl.
I delivered a rousing speech at the GOP caucus against Rep. Tancredo because he had run against the Republican nominee in the previous election. He had the most votes in our precinct and I don't think I swayed anybody.
November 5, 2014
Libertario Delenda Est!
Things are tense on Facebook. I will share this here:
I'll even accept that Mike Dunafon (THC - Glendale) perhaps pulled his votes equally from Republicans, Democrats, Greens, and guys who thought they'd get free Doritos if they turned in a ballot.
But I met Matthew Hess and he is a thoughtful guy. He has no apologies, nor do his supporters for capturing a vote count which likely exceeds the delta. I'm not saying they should, but I cannot see how liberty was served.
Posted by John Kranz at 1:17 PM
| Comments (5)
If you are going to assume that all the LIB votes would have gone to Beauprez, it is equally reasonable to assume that all the GREEN votes would have gone to Hick, pushing the total back to the Hick side. I think its reasonable to figure that all the 3rd parties sort of cancel each other out and not that the LIBS cost us.
Here's my question. I want to talk to the people who voted for Cory AND Hick. What would cause someone to reach THAT conclusion?
Much truth in what you say, dagny, but I see the LIB votes as potentially advancing my interest in liberty. I'll let my progressive friends try to scoop up the green vote, but it concerns me that people who want the same things I do are not advancing the cause. And yes, I know they think the same about me.
Those voting the Gardner-Hickenlooper ticket are clearly those you always hear about who choose the man with the best hair.
Or, as I suggested in a separate comment thread, they chose the most friendly guy in the race. Bob can have a gruff demeanor when he talks about issues.
So there you have it - our country is most likely to be governed by jackals... laughing hyenas.
The all-important "whom would you rather have a beer with?" primary. I'll go with that.
Let me take mine out for a spin: Younger/Cooler has won every presidential election after 1988. Clinton and Obama beat Dole, McCain and Romney. Bush was similar in age but a little spryer and cooler than the automatronic Gore and Patrician Kerry.
It may not match ThreeSourcers love of base principle, but nor is it totally American Idol. As Americans, we are a forward looking nation and as humans, there is an atavistic desire for a vigorous leader hard-wired into our genes.
If you accept my premise at least as important at the margins, would you choose Sec. Hillary Clinton as your party's nominee? Historical, yes. But perhaps a little too historic?
October 29, 2014
War on Women?
Hick staffers get aggressive with tracker:
Posted by John Kranz at 1:02 PM
| Comments (4)
Is this the best we can do? Chicagoans are laughing their arses off at us over this being called "aggressive." LOL
Need I tell a blog brother to "check his privilege?" (I hope so -- I think it would be a first!)
I had some similar thoughts -- though the silent follow to the car was creepy.
As it happens, I'll see your Chicago and raise you New York City. How about Woman walks ten hours around Manhattan. Attractive as I am, I cannot relate. Some of the remarks seemed genuinely complimentary and many seemed inept attempts to "hit on" an attractive woman. But mostly, I thought this is New York (and some sketchy portions thereof). In ten hours, that's the worst you have?
I'd accept recalibration -- especially from a ThreeSourcer with XX chromosomes.
Sorry, I'm confused. What is happening in the video here? Who is harassing whom and why?
The young lady whose voice is heard is attempting to film Governor Hickenlooper. His "muscle" -- and I do use the term loosely -- position signs to prevent her from capturing Hizzonner on camera, then they follow her to the coffee shop and to her car.
October 3, 2014
Posted by John Kranz at 10:35 AM
| Comments (2)
One of us should post a link to the entire debate vid here too. I've seen it posted but don't remember where.
One of us ought to. And one of us can't find it...
October 2, 2014
CATO has released its Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors 2014 [summary] [pdf].
It's a mountain of fun with sprinkles on top. Our dear incumbent in the Centennial State is second from the bottom (he should send Gov. Jerry Brown of CA a card).
But I mean to pick a libertario delenda est fight. I read my big-L friends on Facebook every day that there is "no difference" between the parties. (Red Pill-Blue Pill / Two wings of the same bird of prey / Not a dime's difference / yadda-yadda...) And yet:
- All four A's are Republicans
- Ten of the top 11 are Republicans
- All eight F's are Democrats
Quite a coincidence, nicht wahr?
Posted by John Kranz at 5:51 PM
| Comments (4)
"Governors who have cut taxes and spending the most receive the highest grades, while those who have increased taxes and spending the most receive the lowest grades."
And Republican governors, in contrast to Republican senators and congressmen, are remarkably more likely to earn high grades on that measurement than are Democrat governors. As I alluded, party affiliation is a less reliable indicator of Fiscal Policy Report Card grades for legislators, particularly at the national level. Why? As individuals, executives are more accountable than are the legislative cogs who simply blame their failures on "the body" or "the caucus" or "the leadership."
So perhaps our big-L brethren are half right?
Big Ls tend to be 90% right. What is so maddening is how bitterly they cling to their mistaken decimation.
You and I have a lot of friends at LOTR-F who will be supporting Mike Dunafon and Michael Hess. I like both those guys, but if Gov. Hiockenlooper wins by less that the sum of Beauprez + Dunafon + Hess, I'm going to poison some drinks.
I'm wondering out loud if the anti-2 party crowd can be persuaded to exercise their Quixotic principle only on legislative races, where it earns more merit, and to be pragmatic enough in executive races to vote, not for the "lesser evil" but against the greater one?
I like it. Long time readers will know I took up the "Libertario Delenda Est" flag with great emotion. My efforts to influence lefty and moderate friends were disappointing, in the sense that the 2014 Oakland Raiders have not established themselves as a lock for the AFC Championship. That kind of disappointing.
Perhaps, methought, my calling was to instill pragmatism in the highly-rational big-Ls. That takes me from the Raiders to the Washington DC Football Enterprise that cannot be named.
So, I am tempted to eject but your suggestion might be worth a try.
I must push back on the Senate, however. John Tester won in Montana in 2006 thanks to a big-L candidate -- and he provided the 60th vote for Obamacare. Likewise there are a couple races which might be spoiled this year -- preventing perhaps serious efforts at trimming its unwieldy edges. Liberty is not served.
July 8, 2014
Colorado's Economic Forecast is ... TBD?
What's up with the official Colorado Economic Forecast- State Revenue and Economic Quarterly Forecasts posted on the Colorado.gov website? The reports for the two most recent quarterly reporting periods are AWOL. (Has KDVR 31 noticed yet?) If you click through you can see that the reports from March 2007 until December 2013 are linked to a Colorado.gov page but the March 2014 report is an empty Dropbox page and the June 2014 report is - wait for it - a Google Docs survey by "The Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB)" that "is seeking feedback on its quarterly economic and revenue forecast."
Excuse me, shouldn't you actually be providing a quarterly economic forecast instead of asking us what we want it for? [Click continue reading for the text of the survey]
Okay, I'll tell you why I was looking for the official economic forecast of the Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting. I had just read about this Denver Business Journal survey where 56% of respondents said that state regulations hurt their business "a little" or "a lot."
And I had just reviewed this United States Small Business Friendliness Survey that grades Colorado's regulatory environment a B-minus, worsened from B in 2013. (And the scale only includes grades of A through C.)
And so, I wondered, as his re-election campaign approaches, what is the governor's opinion of Colorado's economic condition - past, present or future? The last time his OSPB published an opinion was in December of last year, when it summarized:
"As with the nation, however, economic progress across the state is uneven. Further, the economy is always vulnerable to adverse, often unexpected, events that could strain budget conditions."
I presume this is the best possible light that state economists are able to cast. That would seem consistent with the compilation of Colorado's other economic grades from the Small Business Friendliness Survey:
Ease of starting a business: A-minus, up from B-plus
Ease of hiring: A, up from A-minus
Regulations: B-minus, down from B
Health and safety: B-plus, up from C
Employment, labor and hiring: C, down from B
Tax code: C-plus, down from B-plus
Licensing: A-minus, up from B-plus
Environmental: B-minus, up from C-plus
Zoning: C, down from B-minus
Training and networking programs: A-minus, down from A
In summary five improvements and five declines, but there are some very ugly grades in there including C's (the lowest grade) in Employment, Tax Code and Zoning. Certainly not to what a state with "one of the nation's most educated, technically saavy workforces" might aspire. While we might expect to lead the nation in economic growth and development, under the administration and policies of the current governor Colorado looks more like a slow-moving state, making the governor's new state logo take on a whole new significance.
Forecast Survey_June 2014
The Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB) is seeking feedback on its quarterly economic and revenue forecast. Please take a minute and respond to our survey. The forecast can be accessed when clicking submit.
Please indicate your organization.
Colorado State Government Agency
Local Government Agency
Government Agency Outside Colorado - Federal, State, or Local
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What is the main reason(s) you read the OSPB forecast?
Please check all that apply.
General Fund Information
Cash Fund Information
Economic Statistics and Data
Economic Analysis and Explanation
If you have used or read previous OSPB forecast publications, on a scale from 1 to 10, how useful and informative would you rate the publication?
A 10 indicates extremely useful and a 1 indicates not very useful.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
OSPB may conduct an additional short survey as we continually improve the forecast publication. If you would be willing to participate in a short survey about the forecast at a later date, please provide your email address.
If you have any feedback regarding OSPB's economic forecast documents, please comment here:
Posted by JohnGalt at 3:12 PM
| Comments (0)
July 6, 2014
"Forty seven percent of Americans pay no federal income tax." These ten words seem to have Republicans convinced that the Republic is lost. No Republican has a chance, they all seem to believe, in any race, against any Democrat stooge. Blog friend AndyN echoed the lament in a Fourth of July comment:
Sadly, I'm fairly certain that between the vote for anybody with a D after his name crowd, the free stuff is more important than freedom crowd, and the make history by voting for a woman crowd, she'll [HRH HRC*] lock down 51% of the people who bother to show up in 2016.
But the most extreme version I heard was from a well respected local columnist, Ari Armstrong, commenting on his own article about "approval voting" and the Colorado Governor's race.
It makes absolutely no difference whether I vote for Beauprez, because he's going to lose anyway (and even if he wins my vote will make no difference to the outcome).
(Ari pondered a vote for small town mayor Mike Dunafon as a principled protest vote.)
I suspect that polling data played a large part in his opinion, as the Real Clear Politics polling had Hickenlooper leading Beauprez by 9 percent before the June 25 primary election, when Armstrong's column was written. But that poll also tested the incumbent against other potential challengers. In a race with no clear favorite, all challengers did poorly. As soon as there was a nominee Rasmussen polled the D and the R head to head and found, a tie.
"It's no surprise this race tightened up as soon as there was a single strong Republican as a counterpoint to Hickenlooper," said Kelly Maher, executive director of Compass Colorado. "John Hickenlooper has never suffered the scrutiny of a one-on-one race, and now he is going to have to answer to Coloradans for his utter inability to lead."
Pessimists will say, yeahbut, despite his "utter inability to lead" he is still tied. To which I reply, he's the incumbent. See: Obama, Barack - 2012.
And on top of public sentiment is the fact that elections only matter when people vote. A high turnout election in this country is still less than half of registered voters. Predicting who becomes the nominee of each party and further, who comes out to vote for him or her, is folly.
* Her Royal Highness, Hillary Rodham Clinton
Posted by JohnGalt at 11:07 AM
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June 28, 2014
And So it Begins, Beauprez and Hickenlooper on... Gay Marriage!
At this benefit gala for musicians Denver's Fox31 had its first opportunity to talk with both gubernatorial candidates at the same time and place since Beauprez won the GOP primary, less than a week ago. So what pressing statewide issue did they find most important for the voters to know about without delay? Why, gay marriage of course.
Stay tuned next week when they'll find out where the candidates stand on abortion, birth control, premarital sex, and teens dating without chaperones.
Posted by JohnGalt at 11:20 AM
| Comments (5)
jk defending the media? local media? What hath FOX31 wrought?
It is not perhaps my #1 issue, but it is probably fair to say that the next Gubernatorial term may well influence gay marriage in Colorado (especially if Glendale Mayor Mike Dunafon* is elected and it becomes mandatory). We have the Tenth Circuit ruling this week and Boulder's issuing licenses -- there may be some clarification.
I contrast that to Cory Gardner and Personhood. The 114th Congress will be pretty far removed from the abortion debate: maybe 1/100th of a SCOTUS confirmation?
*That's a joke. I love Mike Dunafon. But Libertario Delenda Est and all...
So many libertarians "love" Mike Dunafon and so many conservatives "love" Ben Carson, but most of them haven't taken the time to look closely at their positions on every issue. If so they would find out that these men are as unprincipled as any other politician. Specifically, Carson is for gun control. I can't list a specific from memory for Dunafon but after perusing his campaign FB page one day I concluded that Rand would have called him "hippie."
I've been lauding Beauprez and his "Liberty's Promise" platform and advising folks we need to let him know when his positions contradict liberty. We now have our first opportunity. Denying the legal government sanction of marital partnership to two same-gendered humans is contra their liberty. The fact that "a majority of Coloradoans" agree doesn't alter the principle he's chosen to campaign on, it only means that's the direction the political wind is blowing. Now we've all got to figure out a way to tell him.
P.S. Just because I bashed Fox31 doesn't mean I agreed with Beauprez, and just because Beauprez is wrong doesn't mean Fox31 is right to make this the priority issue in the race.
I am REALLY REALLY REALLY tired of politicians, both Democrat and Republican, who profess to believe in Liberty for All but who actually believe in Liberty for PLU.
Thanks Mr. Beauprez for yet another election in which I have to hold my nose all the way to the polls.
Don't you mean thanks Messr's Beauprez AND Hickenlooper?
I have conversed with an unnamed Beauprez confidant who told me Bob's position will be that man/woman marriage is codified in the Colorado Constitution, which he will be sworn to uphold. Also that the court system will decide the issue regardless of his beliefs about gay marriage. Weak tea, I agree. The difficulty is that politics is a pragmatist's game. Principles take a while to be effective and the election cycle is finite. While we continue to advocate for consistent principles we still need to help elect the least authoritarian politicians. The perfect candidate will not be on the ballot for a few more cycles (at least.)
This article explains some of the retail politics challenges facing Colorado Republicans. Lang Sias and Mario Nicolais were primaried by RMGO.
June 19, 2014
Hickenlooper Gun Ban Denial Goes Horribly Wrong!
I like the old-fashioned ways of politics better, where they actually got creative in their prevarication. The lies we're told today are so phony, so obviously transparent, it takes all the fun out of exposing them. But I will say we rarely get to see the unvarnished gut reaction when a politician is caught red handed in an outright lie. Full stop period. Like this:
"How many apologies do you want? What the f***!"
Only one for each lie, governor.
HT: Westword Blog post.
Posted by JohnGalt at 2:34 PM
| Comments (1)
Sadly, he lost Mayor Bloomberg's emails when his hard drive crashed -- I guess we'll never know.
May 27, 2014
My Account was not Hacked
I will give you my Mother's maiden name, the last four of my social, whatever you need to actually believe this is jk typing and posting.
But my arch-nemesis, Rep. Tom Tancredo, was on Devil's Advocate. And he was umm, well let's say pretty good:
The only Republican to support Amendment 64; a Tenth Amendment caucus. That is very good stuff. I'm in a forgiving mood. myself. Surely the media would pepper a candidate Tancredo with 97% immigration questions. But I am becoming an old softie...
Posted by John Kranz at 12:50 PM
| Comments (2)
Yes, Tom does sound swell in this folksy interview. And he's the savior of liberty, since he draws more support from unaffiliated voters than anyone in the race, including Hick. Just ask him! He'll happily tell you what his personal private polling shows. Then watch out if he's the nominee because the Democratic attack ads will remind those voters about everything from deport all illegals to bomb Mecca. Agree or not with him or anything he's ever said, that unaffiliated support is anything but solid.
Gessler has won actual statewide election based on that unaffiliated support. That's where the smart money is going.
Tanc alluded to the albatross that the immigration stance represents by saying he's stood for much more than that and for much longer. Not exactly a strong campaign message.
Harshin' the mellow. But every word you say is true.
I, too, am in Camp Gessler; I look forward to his interview this Friday. The two takeaways from this were: a) the lack of visible horns and KBDI's makeup artist's ability to hide the "666" tattto; and, b) Tancredo's being right on the biggest liberty increase in my state in my adult life: Amendment 64.
If the rest of the GOP plans on reverting to highlighting their drug warrior bona fides, it is going to be a ling time until November.
May 15, 2014
Honey Badger Don't Care
Colorado ThreeSourcers, we need to talk. Secretary of State Scott Gessler goes a little negative today in a fundraising email:
We don't have much time left 'til the Republican primary. Voters must soon choose who they want to lead Colorado...
Should we go with Bob Beauprez -- an establishment politician with a track record of losing big races? While he was chairman of the Colorado Republican Party, the GOP lost control of the State Senate for the first time in four decades. Then, in 2006, Beauprez lost the governor's race by nearly 17 points, one of the worse performances by a statewide GOP candidate in the history of the state!
That is until 2010...
In 2010, Tom Tancredo cost us the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat. He dropped the 'R' next to his name and ran as a third party candidate. After he lost, he re-registered as a Republican. How can we trust a guy like that to lead our state, let alone, our party?
My feelings for Rep. Tancredo (R - 'Murca) are well known around these parts. I was considering Beauprez as the Anybody-But-Tancredo candidate. He will get shellacked in November, but he will not embarrass the party so badly as to threaten Rep. Gardner's Senate race.
In a complete lack of strategy, be a libertarian and vote your heart! Because Unicorns! world I would likely vote for Mike Kopp. But if that gets me saddled with Rep Tancredo... Sec. Gessler is very good: a viable candidate with a statewide win under his belt. More to my liking than Beauprez, less than Kopp.
What's the play, lads and ladies? I need help.
Posted by John Kranz at 5:14 PM
| Comments (3)
Is it "going negative" if it's objectively true? Possibly, but that phrase has a bit in common with Jihad in the ambiguity department. Gessler is certainly not guilty of mudslinging.
Here's my thumbnail handicap of the GOP Guv primary, in order of their entry into the race:
Tancredo - Doesn't expect to win but desperately wants to be relevant and, best possible spin: wants to be on the ballot in case everyone else craters.
Gessler - Has run a solid campaign that is committed to winning from early on, seeking to provide fresh new GOP leadership for the state.
Kopp - A candidate by and for the sizeable social-Con segment of Colorado Republican Party.
Beauprez - The old guard's last gasp.
Even though I tried to be as non-perjorative as possible in my analysis I probably still don't need to tell you that my vote will go to - GESSLER.
I think he will be the strongest possible challenger to the incumbent Democrat, and the best possible governor to boot.
Your turn BR.
Oh, it is stone cold true. I did not mean to imply that I was upset with the tone -- a little surprised, perhaps. It has been pretty nicey-nice up to now.
Thanks for the reply. Shortly after posting this, I saw Kopp's "Greatest Speech given at the State Assembly" as humbly posted on Facebook. I agree with your assessment. In the one debate performance I saw, he kept his 666 tattoo covered and hid that extra head in a fold of his houndstooth jacket.
As George Will said of the Clintons "Fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly -- they get money from their rich friends and run for office. It's just what they do." I don't think I share your assessment of Rep. Tancredo's intentions -- there's a ballot somewhere in Colorado, he's gotta be on it.
So, a humiliating, devastating and party-wide loss centered around a gubernatorial candidate who deports valedictorians? Or just a 2-1 drubbing? Bob! Bob! He's our man!
Mike Kopp's speech. His Facebook feed boasts "Widely acclaimed as the best speech of the Colorado State Republican Assembly, watch Mike's vision for a stronger Colorado."
April 1, 2014
When Reporting the News, Isn't
Readers may recall a 2012 presidential debate between Messrs. Obama and Romney where the former claimed to have recognized Benghazi 9/11/2012 as a "terrorist attack" and the later challenged that assertion. "Yes, he did call it terrorism" was the ruling of the debate moderator, Ms. Candy Crowley. What he actually said during a Rose Garden speech was "No act of terror shall..." without specifically admitting that is what happened that night in Libya.
The Denver Post printed a report on Colorado's Independent Ethics Commission investigation into Governor Hickenlooper's receipt of food and lodging at a conference in Aspen at the expense of a political campaign group, the Democratic Governor's Association. The Post's Lynn Bartels ended the story on yesterday's hearing this way:
[Compass Colorado attorney] Blue also expressed concern that the commission's own investigator has released drafts of his report to the governor's attorneys but not to Compass Colorado.
"It doesn't seem fair," he said.
Blue believes the commission on April 14 should agree to conduct a full hearing on the complaint.
But from this brief mention one may scarcely recognize the extent of the impropriety at issue. Fortunately for me, I had first read the account of The Colorado Observer.
Lawyers for Compass Colorado, the conservative group that filed the ethics complaint, were surprised to learn that the Democratic governorís legal team had already reviewed two drafts of the IEC investigatorís report that the Compass attorneys had not yet seen.
A detailed account of the back-and-forth is included in the TCO story including a statement by Compass Colorado Executive Director after the hearing, which questioned "the transparency of this process."
Indeed, particularly when one considers the possible reasons for a second, or revised, draft report. Perhaps the governor's counsel suggested a change or two?
But I certainly won't accuse Ms. Bartels of any bias in her coverage of this story. After all, she did report "drafts," plural, had been "released" to one side and not the other. Fair and balanced, yessir.
Posted by JohnGalt at 3:03 PM
| Comments (0)
March 6, 2014
Colorado GOP Straw Poll Results
To its discredit, Colorado's Republican Party chose to NOT conduct a statewide straw poll on any of the primary races in 2014. What are they afraid of, I wonder? To their credit, however, many counties chose to conduct straw polls independently. My county of Weld was one of them as was Douglas County, whose website has conveniently aggregated all of the county by county straw polls from:
Douglas, Broomfield, Pueblo (partial), Yuma, Larimer (partial), Adams (partial) Montrose, Weld, Teller (governor only), and Boulder.
Cory Gardner ran away with the US Senate preference poll with 83.6 percent to Hill and Baumgardner's 8.4 and 5.2, respectively.
The Governor's contest was, a contest:
Gessler - 30.3%
Beauprez - 22.5%
Tancredo - 15.7%
Kopp - 14.0%
Brophy - 11.9%
House - 3.6%
Others - 2%
My county seems to prefer Beauprez with 23.2%, followed by Gessler at 20.3%, Tancredo at 19.9%, Kopp at 15.7% and Brophy with 13.6%. House fared very poorly in Weld coming in behind Roni Bell Sylvester, who's 77 multi-county votes included 42 in Weld County.
Posted by JohnGalt at 12:41 PM
| Comments (1)
Here are my gut feelings about this race:
Tancredo is running for two reasons. First, to reestablish himself as a Republican after the 2012 train wreck and second, to put himself in a position to endorse another candidate when he withdraws. The Power Broker play.
Brophy is running because RMGO hand picked him and offered to bankroll his campaign. His statement that "If I get 30% at State Assembly I'll go on to the primary, if I don't I'll go home and spend time with my family - either way I win" tells me he's not as committed as Gessler has proven to be.
House is running to establish statewide name ID, perhaps for a future campaign.
Beauprez polled so well here, as a write-in on most ballots I suspect, that he may decide to "volunteer" as a candidate at State Assembly. He may well boost his showing in the binding vote by delegates to 30 percent, from the 22.5 percent write-in by general caucus goers.
There are four names on the 2014 Primary Election Candidate Petition List: Tancredo, House, Sylvester and Beauprez. Sylvester has a snowball's chance. As does, I believe, House. So at worst, it will be a 3-way race. Gessler, Beauprez, Tancredo. I expect Tancredo to withdraw and endorse Beauprez.
March 5, 2014
Midterm caucuses are sleepy affairs after the quadrennials. I thought all the churn in Centennial State races would supercharge the political atmosphere. But . . . nah.
Eleven souls from my precinct showed up in pretty good weather. There was none of the Ron Paul, Tea Party vibe that permeated 2010 and 2012. A bunch of nice folks who completed all their tasks by 8:30.
Our straw poll results:
Governor: Tancredo 4, Beauprez 3, Brophy 2, Gessler 1, Kopp 1
Senate: Cory Garner 10, Owen Hill 1 (Ten write-in votes, he was not on the ballot).
If the libertarian revolution is going to sweep the GOP. It does not appear it will start in precinct 34.
UPDATE: The highlight may have been Weld County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer's announcing for CO4. She made a rousing, energetic speech about "bringing some Weld County to Washington." Challenging DA Ken Buck, I could not help but notice she was wearing high heels.
UPDATE II: I had the new Nokia Lumina 1020 on me:
|Barbara Kirmeyer||Lori Saine|
Curiously, none of the candidates played the vibraphone . . .
Posted by John Kranz at 10:40 AM
| Comments (3)
You have a 1020? I'm jealous! Doesn't work on T-Mobile though, at least not easily. I went for the $125 Nokia 571 (572?) that doesn't give me heart palpitations every time I drop it or let a kid use it. Still 5MP and has expansion slot for memory that I might use some day.
We had 8 folks in our precinct, and more than that in the other two at our location. Weather started good but a pending snow threat was widely publicized. You are right - these were the "regulars." But I still made a vocal defense of gay marriage, legal marijuana, legal abortion (we had the whole menu) and was well received by most who saw those issues as important mostly to media voices, as a cudgel against every "TEA Party extremist" with an R after her name.
You picture two of my representatives here. I like them both very much. It came as a surprise last night that Barb is running for congress. Clearly there's no "coronation" mechanism in the Colo. GOP.
Our straw poll totals were similar to yours except that Beauprez was the leader with 3 and Tancredo had, I think, just 1. I wanted to tally all three of my precincts but didn't have time before sending the packets back to Greeley. Still looking for straw poll results from Weld but have seen some from DougCo, where Gessler was the top vote getter. (Can't find that same data again this morning.) Also found, in this story, results from Broomfield:
Gessler - 46%
Beauprez - 29%
Brophy - 6%
Kopp - 4%
House - 2%
Gardner - 87%
Hill - 7%
Baumgardner - 5%
Apparently they had some hootin' and hollerin' there, too.
Heh. The 1020 is a bit indulgent, but the one non-communications function that I really use is the camera. I do our HOA newsletter and the occasional blog need -- this baby does quite well. The pix above are zoomed substantially from the nosebleed seats.
I was changing plans and inquired about upgrading and got to comparing a gooberload of different combinations. Ended up scoring two of these on the AT&T NEXT plan. When the dust settles, I realized I'd basically just financed two expensive phones, thus spending my savings on the new plan. (One born every minute I tell ya..)
After a brief buyer's remorse period, I am very pleased with the phone.
Yeah, 41 MP! Drool. Does it have a mega memory to save every pic in full resolution, or does it prompt you to crop or compress or something?
Like the Audi Q7 V-10 TDI I believe I'll own a 1020 one day, but after the bleeding edge pricing comes down, or maybe a refurbished one. ;)
March 4, 2014
CO Gov Candidate Op Eds
Complete Colorado dot com has solicited 700 word op eds from the governor's candidates. My prior post linked the one penned by the Losertarian, Matthew Hess. Here are the ones submitted by Republicans:
Mike Kopp (excellent)
Steve House (excellent)
Tom Tancredo (off-topic, rhetorical and tilting at windmills)
If and when I see others posted, I'll link and micro-review them too.
Posted by JohnGalt at 2:58 PM
| Comments (2)
An embarrassment of riches. I'll agree with all of your assessments. Like the debate, all the non-Tancredo candidates were very good.
I suspect that Rep. Beauprez is not jumping in because the others were not libertarian enough on marijuana and gay marriage...
To caucus! You at the school in Frederick?
Not Frederick, Fort Lupton. Actually my district is split since our 8 precincts won't all fit in the school. I'll be at the "satellite caucus" at a Brighton church.
And He's In!
Rep. Bob Beauprez announces.
Former Congressman Bob Beauprez on Monday filed his paperwork to run for governor, saying Coloradans for weeks have urged him to get into the GOP primary.
In an interview with the Denver Post, the 65-year-old Boulder County native blasted Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper's style of leadership, talked about defeat of the education tax-hike measure Amendment 66, and explained why he got into a race where six Republicans already have announced.
"I want to get Colorado moving again and be the envy of the whole country," he said.
Losing to Bill Ritter by 17 is disconcerting. But despite what you may have read
on the Internet, I've no great, fundamental objection.
Posted by John Kranz at 11:02 AM
| Comments (1)
So "both-ways Bob" became the seventh entrant to the race because he wants to "give voters an option of somebody who has the vision, the credibility, the experience to get the job done."
I guess I can see some advantages there. Still, why wait until Caucus Eve to get in? The Convention bid stuff is a canard. I think there's just a sense that there may never be a consensus around any of the other guys. Maybe true. Like I've said on Facebook, I'll support whichever nominee wins the primary. (I just haven't said on FB that I hope it's not Tom.)
March 3, 2014
Colorado 2014: Caucus Prep
HOLY COW! Caucus in tomorrow! I am ill-prepared and need to lean on ThreeSourcers.
A: Are we showing up with platform planks? This seems a great opportunity to sneak a bit of liberty into the Colorado GOP when they're not looking :)
B: What is the strategy for the gubernatorial nomination? I enjoyed the debate on Sunday and both the lovely bride and I came out choosing Greg Brophy. He is a Republican Hickenlooper -- and I mean that in a very good way -- drives a Prius, rides a bike, bla, bla, bla. He was also the most friendly to liberty in the drug and gay marriage debate. That was a low bar, but he crossed it.
I would be happy to line up for any of the participants. I mentioned two unsurprising areas of disagreement, but they all were good. The guy I am not certain I could support is Rep, Tancredo. He did not bother to show up at the debate, but I figured it was for Republicans as he ran against the Republican nominee last time.
So how do we nominate one of the Anybody But Tancredos? I asked Steve House that very question at LOTR-F. I am worried that the ABT vote will split and open the field for the toxic interloper.
Posted by John Kranz at 1:03 PM
| Comments (5)
A: I had planned to take only the RMGO plank, mostly due to not thinking about others. Having seen how the resolution process works first hand, single resolution suggestions are essentially discarded in the aggregation process. Only the ones with multiple precincts behind them will filter through to state convention, where most of them will pass and then be negotiated at the national convention, which won't happen this off-year cycle.
B: I have been considering Brophy also, as well as House, but the latter is not participating in caucus. Ultimately I decided, last week, to stick with Gessler. His gesslerforcolorado website issues page lists only the issues I think are important to Colorado, and I agree with him on all positions. He's got the best organization and the most fundraising support, and needs to get 30% to appear on the primary ballot. I don't want to weaken his support before the coming battle with Tancredo. Gessler has also proven his electability, having won the statewide election for Secretary of State. None of the others has won a statewide contest.
For the record, I'm also caucusing for Gardner for senate, Buck for CD4, Lori Saine for HD63 Steve Reams for Weld Sheriff, Carly Koppes for Clerk and Recorder, undecided on Attorney General but leaning Mark Waller, undecided on County Commissioner at large, leaning Lyle Achziger. Complete list of candidates here.
A panel of political appointees found Gessler "guilty" of "ethics violations" and the CO Springs Gazette thinks that is a fatal flaw in his campaign. But then, there is this conflict of interest.
I recall the headline that said Gessler's "ethics violations" were essentially a political hit job. Now, I've read the whole article. What a joke.
If we shy away from candidates who are victims of tactics like this we may as well just let registered Democrats start voting in our primaries.
Here is a "what to expect" video about the caucus process from Scott Gessler.
Here is a story with a range of interesting resolutions the author found being proposed at one or more precinct caucus. We had opposition to common core and a few others, but some of these are way beyond the scope of our 8 members who came out in sloppy weather to talk about issues and candidates.
December 17, 2013
Et tu Motor City Madman?
Might be a loooooong year...
Posted by John Kranz at 12:57 PM
| Comments (2)
Reminds me of Chuck Norris' endorsement of Mike Huckabee.
'Spose Scott Gessler could finagle a celebrity endorsement from Clint Eastwood? I'll message him the suggestion.
Heh. For my trouble I received a return email stating, "We've shown the endorsements (40 or so mostly unknown Republican office holders) now we need to show our fundraising power!" Including a solicitation for donation, of course.
December 16, 2013
He's Going to be our Nominee, Is he not?
I'm probably going to have to move. Odds are too good that my buddy, Rep. Tom Tancredo (Wahoo -- CO), will get the GOP gubernatorial nod in 2014. I'll have a more difficult time voting for Gov. Hickenlooper than last time. I did in 2010 in response to a Tancredo third-party run. But that was abstract.
It seems more consequential now that he has signed the terrible gun bills -- really signed on to every piece of nonsense the Democratic legislature put on his desk. In fairness, our geologist guv is good on fracking and our brewmaster guv has helped the craft brewing industry. But that is about it.
Mister serious and statesmanlike Tancredo has this banner ad up on Insty:
I've seen this on Facebook as well. Is he crazy? Don't answer that. We have had three contentious and serious recall efforts that removed three very deserving Democratic legislators. "Probably not a bad idea?" to recall a sitting governor the year he is up for election? Obviously, Crazy-man Tommy does not think so: just some red meat to throw at his populist supporters.
One can argue about his credentials, policies, and efficacy. But I thought that once you run against the nominee, you are pretty much out of the party. How naive I was, he is being welcomed back by a huge part of the Centennial State's GOP.
I'm thinking Tennessee's a nice place...
Posted by John Kranz at 2:35 PM
| Comments (2)
Hope you're right -- I am a HUGE Honey Badger fan!
Yet I am sadly overwhelmed at the surfeit of the following line of thought:
1) Oh man, Hick is really bad!
2) Ergo, we need a big name to beat him.