July 31, 2008Home Run!Megan McArdle, my favorite libertarian Obama supporter, hits one out of the park. The text below is formatted as a quote and I am not certain of its origins. But somebody is taking a marvelous whack at the University of Chicago professors who are protesting the Milton Friedman Institute: "Many would argue that they have been negative for much of Read the whole (very short) thing. Hat-tip: Instapundit
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
But jk thinks:
Sure seems that way to me, but McArdle is the real deal. Posted by: jk at August 1, 2008 2:30 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Not if she supports Obama, and it takes only one thing to destroy your credibility. It's one thing to like someone as a *person*, but no true libertarian could possibly support the candidacy of a raving socialist who wants to hike taxes and redistribute wealth, someone who not just believes in big government but *worships* it and wants to make it *the* driving force in our economy. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at August 1, 2008 4:39 PM
But jk thinks:
I agree that it strains credulity -- the Obama-libertarian overlap is pretty thin. At the same time, Reason Magazine is 80% filled with articles bashing McCain and I almost never hear the Junior Senator from Illinois mentioned. I plan to vote for McCain who has committed multiple sins against liberty and promises more every day on the campaign trail. McArdle doesn't swoon or get shivers up her leg, and she has taken some mighty whacks at him. I think she's crazy -- why I bring it up -- but if you're committed to gay marriage or unrestricted abortion rights, oppose the Iraq War and want us out yesterday, you can most definitely call yourself a libertarian -- and Senator Obama's your guy! Prosperitarians, in contrast, cannot be seen in the Democratic Camp, even for free food.
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
The overlap is thin indeed -- it's just about *only* the issues you listed. Even if you say, "Well, I'll vote for so-and-so who's pretty close but not exactly what I'd like," Obama's state-worshipping, his stance on economic freedom from taxation to envirowhorism, simply means no genuine libertarian could possibly support him. Once someone says he or she supports Obama, I know the person's a liberal and/or deluded. With his desire to "talk" to Iran and Syria, and disarm the U.S. of its nuclear weaons, we may well regret that we didn't take Bruce Bartlett's advice and support Hillary. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at August 3, 2008 11:53 PMWorst. Campaign. Ever.I had once suggested (I'm too embarrassed to provide the link) that -- in spite of his philosophical faults -- Senator McCain might be a good candidate/president because he was a good communicator, specifically that he could express the importance of the war in ways that President Bush has been unable. I'm not alone in being disgruntled with the McCain campaign, but I thought I was being harsh in starting to remember Dole-Kemp '96 with fond nostalgia... But I think Dan Henninger puts things in perspective today. In his weekly Wonderland column on the serious WSJ Ed Page, today’s is titled: Is John McCain Stupid? The answer is not encouraging. This week, Senator McCain delivered differing statements on payroll taxes about which Henninger says "This isn't a flip-flop. It's a sex-change operation." He called Speaker Pelosi "an inspiration to millions of Americans." About VP Gore's certifiably insane energy Jeremiad: Recently the subject came up of Al Gore's assertion that the U.S. could get its energy solely from renewables in 10 years. Sen. McCain said: "If the vice president says it's doable, I believe it's doable." What!!?? In a later interview, Mr. McCain said he hadn't read "all the specifics" of the Gore plan and now, "I don't think it's doable without nuclear power." It just sounds loopy. As Shakespeare said, "Sounds loopy? Nay, Sir, is loopy." Senator Obama's flaws are sufficient that McCain still has a chance, but neither Henninger nor I see many hopeful signs. Thou Shalt Not Criticize the Obamessiah!Racist attacks are coming -- just you wait: SPRINGFIELD, Mo. -- Democrat Barack Obama, the first black candidate with a shot at winning the White House, says John McCain and his Republican allies will try to scare voters by saying Sen. Obama "doesn't look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills." A pedant's first thought is "Was he referring to President Hamilton or President Franklin?" But I guess I am just a racist. As Ludacris would say "paint the White House black and I'm sure that's got 'em terrified." I could not be more disappointed with the lengthening list of topics that are "off-limits." (Chris Muir nailed it in a Day by Day cartoon.) I have cut some slack because it has been done mostly by subordinates and because it is too effective a tactic to expect them not to use. But this is a direct statement by the candidate, making post-dated charges of racism, and I think it is time that we all called "Bullshit" on it. UPDATE: I have been out pedanted -- er, pedanticized -- er, Glenn Reynols is worse: Er, all those other presidents? Isn't there just one President on the dollar bill? He has lots more on this. July 30, 2008Dear Mr. LudacrisI read the lyrics to your new rap song for Senator Obama, and caught the audio on YouTube. I'm back on it like I just signed my record deal Pretty good stuff, "Luda." It's not really my genre, but you really do seem to have an exceptional gift at making things rhyme. The bit about the Bentley is particularly inspired. I write, however, to correct a small factual error. In the end, discussing President Bush you intone: cause what you talking I hear nothing even relevant I'm certain you realize that there have not actually been 43 US Presidents. President Cleveland served two discontinuous terms, grabbing both the 22nd and 24th ordinals. But it is more correct to say that there have been 42. I realize it screws with your otherwise exemplary meter, so I suggest these two lines as replacement: The polity you propose, sir, will not likely engender economic growth Your devoted fan, jk Hat-tip: K-Lo
Posted by jk at 7:09 PM
| What do you think? [0]
The Probability BroachI mentioned this book in a comment a few days ago. I had heard about it from Dale Amon at Samizdata. A commenter mentions its being serialized online. Originally. I conceived The Probability Broach in the mid-70s as a summary of all I'd ever learned about libertarianism, and, more importantly, the promise it offers of a better, more peaceful, more prosperous world than our authority-battered species has known for the last 10,000 years. That's the original author, L Neil Smith. The book has been released as a graphic novel, and that is available online. It looks pretty interesting. Besides the libertarian premise, it has some Colorado hooks. The story opens at the corner of Colfax & York (I rented an old house a block away from there to use as a rehearsal studio in the early eighties). And on page 7, we meet "Propertarians."
Posted by jk at 5:42 PM
| What do you think? [0]
Guys Who Can Pronounce 'Schadenfruede'Terri at I Think ^(Link) Therefore I Err links to an article in Der Spiegel that might be the worst article ever. Who else could marry smug Eurotrash socialism with dimwitted American populism? "We've combed the whole world to come up with the worst economic advice!" (It sounds better in German). The article is dated January 8, 2008, so the Washington correspondent can reference the Democratic primary and have a perfect tie-in for economic nonsense. Just in time for the recession and widespread layoffs many economists fear the American economy could face this spring, the presidential campaign has suddenly found its new hot-button issue: the dark side of globalization. The mortgage crisis, declining real wages and the fear that companies could even accelerate their outsourcing activities in a recession have relegated explosions in Iraq to the role of political background noise. Huh? No Abu Ghraib? Well, we're talking NAFTA, specifically the theft of a bunch of good jobs assembling televisions in Tennessee to a plant in Juarez. Juarez, we are to believe was some sort of lovely, desert paradise until NAFTA. In the United States, the city has come to symbolize a system of international trade that benefits only a few and harms the overwhelming majority, a system as detrimental to the wages of American workers as it is to moral standards. Nein, danke, Herr Steingart, I seriously doubt many people think of Juarez as a "symbol of international trade." I'm thinking that "smelly, scary, dirty border town" would poll substantively higher. Seriously, I went to school in New Mexico and financed one semester by driving to Juarez and smuggling back some not-quite-legal-in-the-US-yet tequila. Good stuff with a worm and all. This was more than a decade before NAFTA, and you will trust me that Juarez was a scary place. I got shot at once. Even doing the tourista parts several years later in daylight disturbed me. Sorry to contradict the good folks at the Ciudad Chamber of Commerce, but I'd suggest you pay the extra $100 and go a little further on to Puerto Vallarta or Acapulco or somewhere. To Der Spiegel, poverty in America is caused by our past devotion to free trade. And poverty in Mexico is the fault of, well, not to put too fine a point on it, George W. Bush. Who is compared to a famous German Totalitarian Tyrant (nope, not that one): The border crossing, in its coarseness, is reminiscent of the East German side of the former border between the two Germanys, except that the face on wall posters is that of George W. Bush and not of the former East German leader Erich Honecker. Of course, the real problem with America and Mexico is that we have not embraced GDR Socialism: The gap between rich and poor has grown by leaps and bounds in America, far more so than in countries like Germany. One-fifth of Americans earn more than half of all wages and salaries. Ten percent of the population owns 70 percent of all assets. This is what presidential candidate John Edwards calls the "two Americas." Trade bad. America bad. Das ist alles.
But Terri thinks:
Thanks for reading the whole thing, I never did finish after the first couple of pages.
But jk thinks:
No chance that Mexico's problems stem from centuries of corruption and Latin America's propensity toward collectivism. Posted by: jk at July 30, 2008 6:26 PMJuly 28, 2008This Doesn't Happen HereMy string of jokes about non-existent editors at ThreeSources (which a real editor would have spiked) have to come to a close. ["come to a close?" how about "stop?" -- ed] Giles Coren is mightily pissed off. I can tell because he starts his Guardian piece "I am mightily pissed off." It seems an editor for the Times Magazine removed the word "a" from his article. Coren makes a lengthy and family-inappropriate explanation of why this was wrong. Hat-tip: Galley Slave Jonathan V Last who says "There are few things in the world as silly as a pretentious writer. Man is a vain animal, but writers have their own special sort of vanity. For exhibit 1,116, I submit this newspaper writer's tirade against a copy editor for removing an indefinite article--an "a"--from his copy."
Posted by jk at 4:57 PM
| What do you think? [3]
But Boulder Refugee thinks:
Although Giles has clearly gone off the deep end, The Refugee has some sympathy. While generally deeply grateful for good editing (God knows he needs it), The Refugee can recall a pissing contest with a novice editor who wanted to change the meaning of a sentence. It was a technical subject not open to interpretation. After a four-day battle of dictionaries, the editor finally conceded that it's the writer who lives or dies by the result. Posted by: Boulder Refugee at July 29, 2008 3:51 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Apparently he had nothing else to write this time. Sheesh! All the bleeder had to do was quickly explain the difference the "a" made, and that it ruined his poor attempt at a joke. Instead, he sounds like Krugman trying to defend an idiotic analysis of a statistic. As Jefferson said, never use two words when only one will do. Or in this case, pages to rant about what two sentences would have done. He never ends a sentence on an unstressed syllable. Yeah. "[bleep] [bleep] [bleep] [bleep]" certainly counts as stressed, doesn't it? Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 29, 2008 4:21 PM
But jk thinks:
Oh yeah, I am a thin-skinned, moderately vain copywriter. I have cried and tantrummed on many occasions because a subtle meaning or a meter was broken by a stupid client or coworker. Maybe it's for the best that I changed lines of work. And let the record show that while The Refugee has been empowered to edit my writing on quite a few occasions, I never remember a single argument. But in the end, Mr. Coren, you have to let go. As JVL includes in his post, it takes a lot of folks to put out a magazine, Giles should learn to play a little better with others. Posted by: jk at July 29, 2008 7:20 PMDay By DayToo long since I have stolen a Day By Day strip:
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Funny you should bring that up. I've been meaning to blog about that. When Obama was born, the law conferred U.S. citizenship if at least one parent was a U.S. citizen, but only if that parent had lived in the U.S. for at least 10 years, 5 of which years must have been past the age of 16. Obama's father was not a U.S. citizen, of course. But Obama's mother was only 18 when he was born. Liberal apologists like the Snopes pair (http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/citizen.asp) have dismissed this, saying that he was born in Hawaii, thus "natural-born" according to the 14th Amendment. Actually, this is incorrect. Courts were interpreting things both ways, in no small reason because because of the "jurisdiction" requirement. Jacob Howard, the senator who wrote the citizenship clause, said it "does not, of course, include persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens, who belong to the families of ambassadors, or foreign ministers accredited to the Government of the United States, but will include every other class of person." In other words, one can be born in the U.S., and not necessarily the child of a visiting political dignitary, and still be a foreigner/alien. I was born in the Philippines, but as a natural-born U.S. citizen, so I was considered a foreigner and needed government permission for my residency. It wasn't until the 1986 change to federal immigration law that anyone born here was considered an automatic American citizen (which is really when every pregnant Juanita wanted to cross the border before she gave birth). It could well be argued that "Barry" was certainly subject to a foreign power (meaning Kenyan citizenship had precedence), because Obama Sr. had enough jurisdiction to take him to Indonesia for some years. Having a birth certificate from a jurisdiction doesn't make you a citizen of there, either. To add to the above, my birth certificate is from the Philippines. Now we have this recent thing about the birth certificate on DailyKos being a forgery. So why won't Obama just release the real one? What does he have to hide? Well, like many liberals, he can instead use the "ostrich strategy" with great success: ignore the thing completely and rely on the MSM's help. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 29, 2008 3:39 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Actually I need to correct myself there, it was his "second father" Soetoro who took Obama Jr. to Indonesia. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 29, 2008 3:42 PM
But jk thinks:
As I recall, Senator McCain is subject to a similar question, is he not? (Not that he does not exist, but that he was born in Guam). Perhaps Rep Barr and Mister Nader will be forced to fight it out. Posted by: jk at July 29, 2008 4:35 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
McCain's situation is actually very clear: he's a citizen. Panama Canal, actually. Guam, being a territory, would have been obvious, but the Panama Canal Zone is treated the same because of federal legislation. Besides, the child of two U.S. citizens is a U.S. citizen by blood, regardless of the location of birth, if the parents lived in the U.S. for a minimum number of years. Jus sanguinus. I myself was born a U.S. citizen abroad, with only one of my parents (at the time) a U.S. citizen. The U.S. State Department gave us a certificate to prove it. http://eidelblog.blogspot.com/2008/03/once-again-new-york-times-doesnt-know.html Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 29, 2008 11:25 PMBest. Scrappleface. Ever.Congress to Halt Closing of Unprofitable Starbucks “These people can’t just walk out of Starbucks and get a job at a grocery store or a factory,” said House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-CA. “They would need ESL classes and cultural training to learn how to relate to ordinary Americans and function in society.”... Read the whole, awesome, thing! Hat-tip: Mankiw How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global WarmingProfessor Reynolds links to a Popsci.com story Global Warming: Not So Bad. The piece questions the D in DAWG, showing that many people and species are helped by warmer temperatures. A 47-year study of one population of great tits—garden birds about the size of sparrows—is providing hope that some animals can adjust quickly to environmental change. University of Oxford zoologists have found that the birds are laying their eggs earlier in the spring to time the hatching of their chicks to the earlier emergence of caterpillars. Talk about burying the lede! I'd've headlined the article: "Great Tits Love Global Warming!" UPDATE: An emailer is moderately offended and I'm moderately pleased that somebody expected better of me. Sincere apologies all 'round.
But johngalt thinks:
Wanna talk about moderately offensive? And there's not even any double entendre there! Posted by: johngalt at July 28, 2008 3:29 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Good thing I didn't click that at work. Not that offensive, really, but some people are way too uptight. That's definitely a link for one of my fans, Lord Boner, who hasn't left a comment on my blog in some time. He kept asking me to stop posting about economics and politics, and talk about tatas...jugs...melons... Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 29, 2008 11:33 PMJOHN!Why should I vote for McCain over Obama? I've been reading a spate of those articles and posts in libertarian leaning magazines and blogs. And while you can paint me as one of the well documented less-than-enthusiastic McCain voters, my pragmatic side is starting to kick in pretty hard. I've long championed his foreign policy ("win") and trade policy ("yes.") Last week, I linked to a great OpEd of his on Freddie and Fan. Today, I will add "EDJUKASHUN!" to the list and link to the lead WSJ editorial which offers a stark contrast. Here is Senator McCain: "When a public system fails, repeatedly, to meet these minimal objectives, parents ask only for a choice in the education of their children." Some parents may opt for a better public school or a charter school; others for a private school. The point, said the Senator, is that "no entrenched bureaucracy or union should deny parents that choice and children that opportunity." Senator Obama: It's well known that the force calling the Democratic tune here is the teachers unions. Earlier this month, Senator Obama accepted the endorsement of the National Education Association, the largest teachers union. Speaking recently before the American Federation of Teachers, he described the alternative efforts as "tired rhetoric about vouchers and school choice." One more issue where the liberty minded can feel good about pulling the 'R' lever in November. The editorial closes: "When the day arrives that these two candidates face off, we hope Senator McCain comes prepared to press his opponent hard on change, hope and choice in the schools." July 26, 2008An Olive Branch from One America to the OtherJohn Edwards' greatest legacy in American politics may be in revealing the existence of "Two Americas" that uneasily coexist with each other in the same time and space on this continent. I propose the following olive branch, from one of those Americas to the other: "You let us legalize drilling for oil and we'll let you legalize pot." Now that's what I'd call a real kumbaya moment.
But jk thinks:
That would be win-win for the libertarians, where do I sign? Posted by: jk at July 26, 2008 7:04 PM
But johngalt thinks:
Wouldn't it be win-win for everyone? Who could possibly want pot AND oil to be against the law? Posted by: johngalt at July 27, 2008 1:17 AM
But jk thinks:
You need to use some smiley faces or LOL or something, I can't determine the sarcasm level. At the risk of seriousizing frivolity, how many people would support legalized pot and ANWR drilling? I'd say about 9%, making a pretty good little-l-lib identifier. Though my favorite is still the Instapundit commenter: "I dream of an America where millions of happily married gay couples have closets full of assault weapons."
But johngalt thinks:
I tried to get my point across with a one-liner but it seems we've got different impressions of what "win-win" means. In "my reality" it doesn't mean that a majority of voters win on BOTH counts, but that by giving up something of less value (to them) they receive in return something of greater value (to them.) Hence my question, with ZERO sarcasm: "Who could possibly want pot AND oil to be against the law" meaning that drilling for oil is likely of more value to those who want to "prevent the decay of our nation's moral fabric through abuse of the demon-weed" and I presume, from observation of citizen's initiative efforts, legalization of pot (use, cultivation, sale, possession, etc.) is more important to hippies than ANYTHING else on earth. So the only subset of voters for whom this proposition is NOT win-win are those who value neither legal use of petroleum oil or legalization of cannibis. How many people are really in that group? Who would they be? Puritanical environmentalists? Show me one! Posted by: johngalt at July 28, 2008 3:44 PM
But jk thinks:
Thanks for the explanation -- speaking slowly and using very small words usually works great. I'm fine with drilling AND assault rifles AND pot AND gay marriage -- if we can only do something about those wicked trans-fats! I am really intrigued by this book recommended by Samizdat Dale Anon. Anybody read it? (This full-color graphic novel re-tells the story of police Lt. Win Bear, who while investigating the murder of a university physicist, gets blown "sideways in time" and finds himself in a technologically advanced, fabulously wealthy world where government is nearly extinct and everyone carries guns.) Paul Krugman is Off TodaySo endeth the editorial... I hope the NYTimes faithful were not too disappointed in getting David Brooks instead. I bet they were, for Brooks was on a tear. He admits that when he first Senator Obama's soaring [C'mon people now] rhetoric [smile on your brother] in Iowa [Everybody get together] "I have to confess my American soul was stirred. It seemed like the overture for a new yet quintessentially American campaign." The Berlin blockade was thwarted because people came together. Apartheid ended because people came together and walls tumbled. Winning the cold war was the same: “People of the world,” Obama declared, “look at Berlin, where a wall came down, a continent came together and history proved there is no challenge too great for a world that stands as one.” Yet, now, the paucity of substance is becoming problematic: But now it is more than half a year on, and the post-partisanship of Iowa has given way to the post-nationalism of Berlin, and it turns out that the vague overture is the entire symphony. The golden rhetoric impresses less, the evasion of hard choices strikes one more. If Senator Obama's view of the past does not quite mesh with reality, is it any surprise that his view of the future is similarly clouded? The great illusion of the 1990s was that we were entering an era of global convergence in which politics and power didn’t matter. What Obama offered in Berlin flowed right out of this mind-set. This was the end of history on acid. Now that's a quote of the day: "It will take politics and power to address these challenges, the two factors that dare not speak their name in Obama’s lofty peroration." Hang on Timesers, Krugman will be back soon. I am certain of it. Hat-tip: Tom Maguire July 25, 2008Bringing Light to the WorldYes! Yes! Y-E-S! I have been waiting for such a column. Gerard Baker writes in the Times:
The rest is below the fold (lest The Times comes calling). The Child was blessed in looks and intellect. Scion of a simple family, offspring of a miraculous union, grandson of a typical white person and an African peasant. And yea, as he grew, the Child walked in the path of righteousness, with only the occasional detour into the odd weed and a little blow.
But johngalt thinks:
And yet, there were still multitudes of poor... "Surely you're not saying, P.S. That's Gerard Baker in the Times of London, not New York. And it IS a masterpiece. Obama-as-PresidentMike Littwin, a liberal columnist for the Rocky Mountain News had this Obama cheerleading piece in today's Rocky. Forget the column, which is mostly fawning pap. The nut graf says it all: If the idea of this trip was to let Americans see Obama as a would-be president, it was a grand success. And, judging by Obama's performance, his presidential proclivities can be summed in a single word: feckless. Obama took strong stands for everything over which he will do nothing: Darfur, Zimbabwe, AIDs in Africa and the unification of Jerusalem. (Does anyone think that he will really send troops to any of these places?) On issues that he must tackle, such as winning in Iraq, he turns tail and runs like hell. While simultaneously admitting that the Iraqi surge worked and maintaining that it was a mistake, he calls for a similar surge in Afghanistan. Guys like Littwin lap it up - what a country! The press also makes much of Maliki's "endorsement" of Obama and his 16 month plan. Assuming we can take this at face value, one must ask oneself why Maliki would prefer Obama in the White House. Could it be that he would rather negotiate with a relatively weak president than a relatively tough one?
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
In fact, Maliki never endorsed Obama. Not at all. But the liberal MSM here would have you believe so. Actually, what Maliki did is *agree* to a general timetable for withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq. This withdrawal is possible only because of the, dum dum dum, MCCAIN "SURGE" STRATEGY! When Obama and other nutroots opposed the refocusing of U.S. fighting tactics, it was going so poorly in Iraq that any withdrawal would have been in the face of defeat. By the Obamorons' logic, Satan endorses my pre-school teacher because they both agree that 2+2=4. Goddamn liberals. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 25, 2008 2:53 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Oh, I should also add, some Iraqi government spokesman said Maliki's remarks were mistranslated and misconstrued, and that they should in no way be taken as supporting any candidate. Consider also that the "source" of Maliki's supposed endorsement is Der Spiegel, which is Germany's equivalent of the New York Times. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 25, 2008 2:55 PM
But Terri thinks:
Just like any good lobbyist, Maliki is playing both sides. IF Obama wins, Maliki looks like the whole thing was his idea. IF McCain wins, same song.
But jk thinks:
BR, you're new around here and I don't expect that you have committed the ThreeSources Style Guide to memory. But I will call your attention to page 316: Avoid redundancy and saying the same thing over again: Instead of "A liberal columnist with the Rocky Mountain News..." say "A Rocky Mountain News Columnist..." Otherwise, superb! Posted by: jk at July 25, 2008 5:56 PM
But johngalt thinks:
I don't recall Obama ever "admitting that the Iraqi surge worked." Instead he says, "Katie, as you've asked me three different times, and I have said repeatedly that there is no doubt that our troops helped to reduce violence. There's no doubt." There's a world of nuance between "helped to reduce violence" and "accomplished their mission." And what exactly is this "16 month plan" of his? He can't say: "As I've said before, I am not interested in a false choice between either perfect inflexibility in which the next 16 months or the next two years I ignore anything that's happening in Iraq. Or, alternatively, that I just have an open-ended, indefinite occupation of Iraq in which we're not putting any pressure on the Iraqis to stand up and … take this burden on. What I'm gonna do is to set a vision of where we need to go, a clear and specific timeframe within which we're gonna pull our combat forces out." So what he said is, I'm gonna set a clear and specific timeframe within which we're gonna pull our combat forces out but it won't be something that's as inflexible as "within the next 16-24 months." Other than that though, it will be a clear and specific timeframe - at least, in his "vision."
But Boulder Refugee thinks:
It's also worth noting that his 16 month mantra started 20 months ago. Posted by: Boulder Refugee at July 28, 2008 2:48 PMQuote of the DaySen. Obama did not want to have a trip to see our wounded warriors perceived as a campaign event when his visit was to show his appreciation for our troops and decided instead not to go. -- Obama adviser, Air Force Maj. Gen. Scott Gration (Ret.)From Jake Tapper. Apparently, it would be inappropriate to visit the troops as a campaign stop, but it's fine to have a "citizen of the world" campaign rally in Berlin. Hat-tip: Instapundit It's Like a Culture of Corruption!Professor Glenn Daltry would say "meet the new boss, same as the old boss." Kim Strassel's Potomac Watch column today is a grim reminder of just how corrupt our Congress really is. The corporate world got an early taste of this last year, when New York Sen. Chuck Schumer used his majority status to take advantage of his home-state financial industry. It works like this: Mr. Schumer steps up to protect hedge funds and private equity from his own party's threats of taxation. In return, a grateful industry writes enormous campaign checks that Mr. Schumer, as head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is now using to increase his party's majority. Somewhere, Mr. DeLay is whistling in appreciation. She's sadly right that Republicans were no better, and that these pages were ripped from the Hammer Handbook. And she is right that there is a double standard on press outrage. What I cannot understand is why so few people care that these banana republic tactics (Mmmm. Bananas) live on in Washington.
But Boulder Refugee thinks:
The Refugee agrees with JK that the Republicans have behaved no better than Democrats since about 2000. And there's the rub. Republicans must hold to a higher standard, and when they do, they get elected. We complain about media bias, Congressional double standards and the like. To paraphrase Phil Gramm, we've become a party of whiners. Even if the complaints are rooted in fact, we've seen time and again that when Republicans uphold high standards, they get elected regardless of media bias. The body politic is not as stupid as is widely reported. Posted by: Boulder Refugee at July 25, 2008 12:10 PMJuly 24, 2008John!We've been a little hard on the GOP nominee around here. It's worth pointing out when he does something right. Larry Kudlow links to this Op-Ed and has some kind words for Senator McCain: Senator John McCain hit a grand-slam homerun today with an op-ed piece (“Take taxpayers off hook for rot at Fannie, Freddie”) that debunks the federal worship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and takes off the table the possibility that these GSEs will get a strong dose of steroids if he is elected president. This is a dramatic statement that completely differentiates his view from the go-along, get-along policy of Sen. Obama. I think McCain is probably right that some intervention will be required. And more right to call for reform in exchange for exercising the Federal put. What should be done? We are stuck with the reality that they have grown so large that we must support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through the current rough spell. But if a dime of taxpayer money ends up being directly invested, the management and the board should immediately be replaced, multimillion dollar salaries should be cut, and bonuses and other compensation should be eliminated. They should cease all lobbying activities and drop all payments to outside lobbyists. And taxpayers should be first in line for any repayments. That's a good start!
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
McCain doesn't see the real conflict. It isn't Main Street versus Wall Street. It's me against my neighbors. The bailout is sticking responsible people with the bill, by making them pay taxes to pay for bad lenders and bad borrowers. So McCain says taxpayers should be first for repayments. And at what interest rate? If I wanted to help bail out, I'd have done so already at a rate I wanted, thank you very much. And no, NO ONE is "so large" that a government bailout is required. Let them fail for all I care. People's mortgages won't go away, you know, and there will be plenty of investors who will buy them up at a fair market price. Fannie and Freddie could completely disappear right now, but that wouldn't make people's houses disappear or force them to be convicted. It just means someone else would buy the mortgage. Privatization is the ONLY "intervention" that should be done, but no politician will get elected by speaking about what's really required. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 25, 2008 3:06 PM
But jk thinks:
The points he concedes early are alarming, but read that last 'graf again: I'll continue my crusade for the right reform of the institutions: making them go away. I will get real regulation that limits their ability to borrow, shrinks their size until they are no longer a threat to our economy, and privatizes and eliminates their links to the government. Purty good stuff -- and nothing Senator Obama will dare flirt with. Posted by: jk at July 25, 2008 5:50 PM The Denver ConventionIf I were a dirty hippie, I would still not breathe easy. Denver officials expect to spend more than $18 million on police equipment for the Democratic National Convention — but the purchases apparently won't include high-tech weapons that use sonic waves to incapacitate protesters or goo guns to immobilize them. I guess that still means fire hoses and dogs are still budgeted.
But jk thinks:
Wasn't "The Goo Guns" one of those 80's big hair bands? Posted by: jk at July 24, 2008 1:10 PMJuly 23, 2008Great Read on HayekSamizdat Jonathan Pearce pens a long and thoughtful post, in response to a left-of-center journalist who wrote: A civil, but still flawed look at Hayek from the left He discusses Jessie Larner's piece in Dissent Magazine: what he got right, what he missed. Both pieces are well worth a back-to-back read. Public-Private PartnershipI was going to give WSJ Ed Page Editor Paul Gigot a quote of the day, for this little bon mot: My battles with Fan and Fred began with no great expectations. In late 2001, I got a tip that Fannie's derivatives accounting might be suspect. I asked Susan Lee to investigate, and the editorial she wrote in February 2002, "Fannie Mae Enron?", sent Fannie's shares down nearly 4% in a day. In retrospect, my only regret is the question mark. Reading the rest of the editorial made me realize that this needed a little more coverage. Long time readers of the WSJ Ed Page have followed the battles with Fannie and Freddie -- if you're behind, they have compiled them here. Gigot takes the unusual step of writing a bylined editorial on his own page, and I strongly suggest that you read the whole thing. He and his staff were on the front lines against this perverse hybrid of government and private power. He has certainly earned a few I-told-ya-sos, but he uses the space to expand and discredit the whole idea of mixing government power with private enterprises. The abiding lesson here is what happens when you combine private profit with government power. You create political monsters that are protected both by journalists on the left and pseudo-capitalists on Wall Street, by liberal Democrats and country-club Republicans. Even now, after all of their dishonesty and failure, Fannie and Freddie could emerge from this taxpayer rescue more powerful than ever. Campaigning to spare taxpayers from that result would represent genuine "change," not that either presidential candidate seems interested. It is germane not only because we are bailing out Fannie and Freddie today, but also because Senator Obama, and to a lesser extent, Senator McCain both have a soft spot for this "third-way" model, Public-Private Partnership. It's all Kumbaya all the time, until you realize that you have created an un-reformable, undefeatable monster.
It wasn’t until 1968 that Fannie was privatized....The main reason for the change was surprisingly mundane: accounting. At the time, Lyndon Johnson was concerned about the effect of the Vietnam War on the federal budget. Making Fannie Mae private moved its liabilities off the government’s books, even if, as the recent crisis made clear, the U.S. was still responsible for those debts. It was a bit like what Enron did thirty years later, when it used “special-purpose entities” to move liabilities off its balance sheet. Jeez, them Enron boys were pikers... Letter to a Young LeftyA family member (uh-oh) sends a link to a short New Yorker piece on Senator Obama's "Flip Flops." The Flop of the Flip has been the buzz in my family. I wondered whether the far lefties who share my parents (maybe they're adopted...) were disturbed by the Senator’s move to the center, "At this rate," I told my brother, "by election day he will be calling Phil Gramm a Communist and calling for privatizing the Post Office." A niece caught up on the thread and asked what I thought of Hertzberg's New Yorker piece. It's a pretty sympathetic scoring of Senator Obama's post-primary changes As I said in the thread, the flip flop accusation is overblown and overused. But it is curious that an unknown quantity like the Junior Senator from Illinois cannot define himself more forcefully on his signature issues. But I am not going to not vote for him because he changes positions -- I will not vote for him because most of his positions are so bad. The article enumerated each supposed flip flop and scored it. I was interested in his views on NAFTA (which did not merit a mention) and on DC v. Heller. Here is Hertzberg, writing to the New Yorker faithful, on SOF2 (Senator Obama's Flip Flop) on the District of Columbia gun ban: For twenty years, nominal support for the death penalty and its partner in crime, “gun rights,” has apparently been mandatory for any Democrat wishing to have a serious chance to be elected President. I’ve never seen anything quite like it. Had he worked in support for child labor, and maybe blood-libel, I think we'd be talking Pulitzer! I'm working on my response. It happens that even the Republicans in my family are pretty squeamish on guns. I have to be careful not to overstep. I'm thinking of: Dearest Babbolooshka, July 22, 2008Makes Me Question Their Climate Advice...John Tierney with more mad, libertarian ravings in the New York Times: Why does the [American Heart Association] continue to insist that saturated fat should be avoided, if these trials repeatedly show that high saturated fat diets lead to better cholesterol profiles than low-saturated fat diets? And how many of these trials have to be done before the National Institutes of Health or some other august institution in this business re-assesses this question? After all, the reason the food guide pyramid suggests we eat things like butter and lard and meats sparingly (and puts them high up in the pyramid) is that they contain saturated fat. This is also the reason that the A.H.A. wants to lower even further what’s considered the safe limit for saturated fats in the diet. Could we -- maybe -- have the government NOT take our money to give bad diet advice? I see the new food pyramid PSAs when I'm watching the tour. They've co-opted Disney's Jungle Book characters to tell kids to go to a government website to get [bad] diet advice. I hate to see Louis Prima abused so. I was raised on the 4 Food Groups, which had the virtue of being a blatant advertisement for the four big ag lobbies. You knew if M&M/Mars ponied up some dough, that Snickers® could have been the fifth. Nobody really pretended it was science -- though it was probably better diet advice than when the government took the job seriously. The first food pyramid (all-carbohydrates, all the time) would have been a target for malpractice lawsuits were the government not protected. I don't know what the new one is about. But does anybody doubt that there is a robust private market in research and products for dieters? I ridiculed government involvement in dieting in May of 2003: The guidelines and all the new posters and the new “Healthy Kid” logo on the menu (you can see it already, can’t you?) will all highlight low fat, high carbohydrate foods. I should take consolidation that nobody will pay much attention to these, but some people will and their health will be worse because of government intervention. Not sure my writing ages too well, but the ideas do. The government’s advice has been:
In short, it displays all the flaws of top down, command and control structure. I wonder if this would not be a good target for a little-l libertarian attack. I think you can convince people that federal nannyism in food is counter-productive, liberty eroding, and supra-Constitutional. I think conservatives and liberals might come together. That's change I can believe in. Hat-tip: Instapundit
Posted by jk at 4:00 PM
| What do you think? [4]
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
One thing I learned while dropping 40 pounds was that low-fat, high-carb foods can be just as bad: calories DO count and should be counted. It doesn't matter whether you eat excess calories in the form of carbs, fats or proteins; your body will store whatever excess as fat. If you eat 500 calories a day more than what you burn, you'll gain about one pound of fat per week. Don't follow Atkins, though, because that's way too much fat. Eat enough protein depending on your muscle mass, but do your health a favor and cut out the fatty kinds as much as possible. You want fats in the form of omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids, not the fats you'll find in bacon and ribeyes (which you don't have to avoid, just don't eat them every day). Most people don't need as much protein as they think. Bodybuilders do fine on 1 gram of protein per pound of body weight, per day. And don't be afraid of carbs. You need carbs -- complex carbs with lots of fiber. Brown rice, whole wheat flour. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 23, 2008 10:38 AM
But jk thinks:
Mmmm. Bacon. I lost 70 lbs on Atkins and never felt better in my life. Once the weight was gone, I had a difficult time converting to a maintenance plan that was Atkins-friendly. And now I consider it too difficult. I doubt that we disagree on the Federal Government's role in this, however. You and I chose different methods that worked for us, for different reasons. I wrote that essay when I was on Atkins, it was clearly working for me, and I was disheartened to see so many of my tax dollars being spent to contradict it.
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Of course, you should know as well as anyone that I abhor government telling us what is "healthy" and what is not. Jefferson knew two centuries ago that "Were we directed by Washington when to sow and when to reap, we should soon starve from want of bread." Atkins is effective for losing weight, but not healthy for a continued lifestyle, and even losing weight on Atkins will leave you nutritionally deprived. Ketosis by definition is nutritional deficiency, because your body is breaking down fat on an emergency basis to get what it needs. You need a healthy balance, and a whole lot of vegetables. Make at least one meal a day a vegetable-based meal, like a salad for lunch; some meat is ok but it can't be the main ingredient. Eating 7-10 "servings" of vegetables daily crowded out the bad stuff I would have eaten. The weight came off and I felt better in that I could move more easily, but my biochemistry was much better, and that's not always possible to feel. It's much easier to get vitamins and nutrients by eating a healthy diet, rather than forcing your body to break down complex foods to get what it needs. Besides, once you're off Atkins and start eating carbs, your body will feel so deprived that it will seem to try to save every carb calorie as fat. Every french fry, chip and Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 25, 2008 3:26 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
piece of white bread will go almost straight to your middle. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 25, 2008 3:28 PM"The Obama Effect"From www.hypemovie.com: To roughly paraphrase Rush Limbaugh today, "Obama demonstrates how it is that totalitarianism can take hold. Not that Obama is a totalitarian but that he uses the same emotional appeals that bring tyrants to power." Hat tip: johngalt's dad (again) Yet Another DAWG "Denier"As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" If your name is Albert Gore Junior, you ignore those facts. Dr. David Evans, self-described "rocket scientist" and "important and useful" government funded scientist "working to save the planet" chooses not to ignore facts. (Well, whuddaya know... a scientist who actually practices... science!) Dr. Evans now writes, "When it comes to light that the carbon scare was known to be bogus in 2008, the ALP is going to be regarded as criminally negligent or ideologically stupid for not having seen through it." 4. The new ice cores show that in the past six global warmings over the past half a million years, the temperature rises occurred on average 800 years before the accompanying rise in atmospheric carbon. Which says something important about which was cause and which was effect. Read it all. Particularly the other three "most basic salient facts" of which the above is number four. Finally, this: The world has spent $50 billion on global warming since 1990, and we have not found any actual evidence that carbon emissions cause global warming. Evidence consists of observations made by someone at some time that supports the idea that carbon emissions cause global warming. Computer models and theoretical calculations are not evidence, they are just theory. Duh! Hat tip: johngalt's dad, who also emailed it to Bill O'Reilly today. We'll see if he picks it up. Deleterious Anthropogenic Warming of the Globe
Posted by JohnGalt at 2:48 PM
| What do you think? [3]
But mdmhvonpa thinks:
Of course, for even printing this you are going to hell as because you are worse than a Nazi pedophile and all. Problem is that with the recent spate of global cooling, the lower planes of damnation are much like a balmy day on the Outer Banks in SC. I hear that the damned souls of insects are a bit of a pain though. Posted by: mdmhvonpa at July 22, 2008 3:10 PM
But jk thinks:
Wow. That's a good, short, and serious whack at the "the science is settled" crowd. I don't know how you kept from excerpting the whole thing. I liked: Recently the alarmists have suggested we ignore the radiosonde thermometers, but instead take the radiosonde wind measurements, apply a theory about wind shear, and run the results through their computers to estimate the temperatures. They then say that the results show that we cannot rule out the presence of a hot spot. If you believe that you'd believe anything. Yup, where real data fail to back up computer modeling, let's enhance the data with a little computer modeling. Let me know if Mister O'Reilly can fit it in tonight between Mexican terrorists pouring across the border, speculators driving up oil prices and follow ups on some pretty white woman who is missing somewhere.
But Terri thinks:
Frankly I blame Matt Drudge for global warming. Before he started calling every swirling cloud a major monumental run for you lives disaster storms were just storms and changes in average temperature just meant averages change. Posted by: Terri at July 22, 2008 4:58 PMDon't Know What You Got 'till It's GoneFamed political philosopher Joni Mitchell nailed it with that one. She was spouting green-wacko-enviro-nonsense at the time, but the sentiment has applications today. I breathed a sigh of relief when none of my favorite Starbuckses were on the Seicento Guasti (dead 600) list. Some others were not so fortunate. The Wall Street Journal tells the sad tale of Kate Walker, a facilities manager for software company SunGard Financial Systems who recently learned of a store closing in New York City. Now that it's going away, we're devastated. "Paved paradise and they put up a parking lot..." This link comes from a post by Tom Smith: Admit You Like Starbucks. Tom is a man of my own heart and bean. You try to tell these kids today, who are way too cool for Starbucks, what life was like before the white and green curse: First, remember what coffee was like before Starbucks. Some of you (though I doubt it, with the readership of this blog) may have cut your teeth on micro-roasted craft coffee shipped straight from Kona or that African critter's butt to your grinding burr in Seattle. But most of us drank the usual American swill to be found in law firm coffee rooms and frat house kitchens. Akk. Dreadful stuff and I know because I drank enough of it. "I just made it" meant it had been sitting there getting foul for less than an hour. "It's OK" meant you could drink and not die immediately. I grew up in a house where my Mom drank 20 cups of coffee a day, not one of them not worth forgetting until, you guessed it, Starbucks came along and taught people about coffee the way everybody discovered wine in the 1970s. So yes, Starbucks is not as good as I have never been too proud for Starbucks. There is a Peet's in Boulder and it is wicked good. There are several indie places I love. But last week, I had the common experience of going to a new indie joint that was cute and sunny and cozy and had a really nice barista and attractive decor and was a really nice place. My Cappuccino was not dry enough to deserve the name (my wife's latte was the exact same weight). Worse still (yeah I hear your eyes rolling -- poor guy's cappuccino wasn't dry enough!!!) they had not pulled good shots and what I got was coffee flavored milk. I kind of like it the other way 'round. Starbucks may never be the best coffee in town, but it is always way above the mean. Mmm coffee. Bye. UPDATE: Taranto links and says "World Ends, Etc.": Cafe closings hit minority areas The humanity...
Posted by jk at 11:40 AM
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July 21, 2008I'm Not His DemographicI'm not really a "Daily Show" guy. Politically, I might me more a "Colbert Report" guy, but as I've said, the whole concept of faux news is rather creepy to me. I know a lot of people who get their news from Mister Stewart. I ignore this and live a pretty happy, satisfied existence. Until Greg Mankiw posts this on his blog: As for the politics and as for the substitution of Stewart's program for news, I fear for the Republic. Ben Bernanke is "an economic expert" when he disagrees with the President. I wonder how many other officials appointed by the administration are held in such high esteem? I'm sure all the ones who repent are. The Indymac bank failure is implicitly attributed to Bush in a happened-on-his-watch way. Kind of funny that the funny man wouldn't take a jab or two at Senator Chuck Schumer (D - NY) who <john stewart sarcastic screaming voice>I don't know, actually caused it???</john stewart sarcastic screaming voice> End with the accepted truth that the President mislead us into Iraq. Nope, no need to wipe any nose coffee off my keyboard after that. I'm not sure what Professor Mankiw appreciated enough to post it.
Posted by jk at 2:35 PM
| What do you think? [0]
July 20, 2008The New Graeme Frosts II(This is a long update to the post below, "The New Graeme Frosts.") I wondered how long it would take to see the "bloggers are mean to the overweight" meme. Eidelblog links to a Kevin Hayden post dated 7:16 last night. In the process, they neglect to consider the high percentages of Ohio families reporting similar financial difficulties, even those with family incomes between $40K and $79K. Paying for gas, getting a good job or getting a raise, paying for healthcare or insurance has grown difficult for between 1 and 4 and 1 in 2 Ohioans in that middle class income range. Leaving aside the unclaimed abstinence medal, there really are two stories here. Perry is right to focus on "state worship" as enabling these people to make bad decisions with little or no consequence. I'm equally interested as a media story. NPR wanted to run this story so very badly. I'm sure they advertised for someone to feature. And I am sure they were delighted to get Angelica and Gloria. I am pretty uncomfortable piling on those two women, because -- unlike the Frosts -- they didn't put themselves up (Does NPR pay? I hope so in this instance.) And their plight is pretty sad. I will not agree with the commenters on Gateway Pundit who claim these two live a princely life because their percentage of fixed payments to income is low. I flatly condemn the cruel sexual comments. My complaint is with NPR. Hayden has a point that it is more difficult to assemble a healthy diet on less money. They can't really afford a health club and personal trainer, and starchy, high carbohydrate foods are the cheapest. BUT THAT WASN'T THE STORY! Had NPR done a feature on those who find it hard to eat healthfully in Bush's Amerikkka, that would have been an option, and Ms. Nunez and Ms. Hernandez would have been great "gets." But NPR was sworn to show starvation. That supports their call for more government help and puts the current administration’s policies in a bad light. So they comb the Buckeye State for a family to feature and these are the best they can find. Hayden tells us that a quarter of Ohio families are in that predicament -- so why did NPR choose Nunez and Hernandez? I suggest that perhaps there are not millions of starving families in Ohio and that NPR had to scrape pretty far down the barrel. July 19, 2008The New Graeme FrostsI assume many of you saw this, but I think everybody has to. NPR profiled the plight of this family that has had to cut down on food. The headline on the NPR site is For Some Ohioans, Even Meat Is Out Of Reach. I'm sure the story was quite touching on the radio. I can almost hear the dulcet tones of the NPR announcer du jour, and the well produced transitions with acoustic music in the background. Low-income families in Ohio say they are particularly hard-hit by the changes in the economy, according to a new poll conducted by NPR, The Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard School of Public Health. In the blogosphere, however, the story has a different vibe because it includes a picture of Angelica Hernandez and Gloria Nunez, the "starving" family: ![]() Now I hate to be cruel. I have been heavy most of my life and could certainly use to drop 20 pounds right now. But only NPR could present these two as suffering from a lack of food. (Okay, I'll be cruel: the headline "Meat out of reach" is apropos because none of them can lift her arms! -- Sorry.) Like the Frosts, the family that starred in the Democratic Radio address to support SCIHP, maybe these people have -- I don't know -- made some bad choices, or have perhaps done something slightly wrong that has kept their income from keeping up with inflation? Nunez and most of her siblings and their spouses are unemployed and rely on government assistance and food stamps. Some have part-time jobs, but working is made more difficult with no car or public transportation. Yet the high prices have hit them hard as the accompanying graphic shows: ![]() They're not hit by high gas prices because they don't have a car. They've cut back on food (no more ice cream!) so they are saving money. Their energy costs at home are subsidized and unchanged. Why were they chosen by NPR to support this story premise? Because they were the only family in Ohio that claimed they were eating less because of food prices. And because there are no pictures on radio. Chain of hat-tips: Instapundit, Gateway Pundit, Moonbattery. UPDATE: Mean-spirited photoshopping from Snapped Shot: Mondo-Heh!
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
They had to cut down on ice cream! Cry me a river. Yeah, subsidized housing. Healthcare is unchanged, because these two get it because the rest of us are forced to pay. Somewhere there's a Third World village that's starving because of these two bitches. Not because these two bitches eat the same food, but because the costs of "public support" means the rest of us have less to spend, including on goods and services that Third Worlders could produce and thereby lift themselves out of poverty. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 19, 2008 1:49 PM
But jk thinks:
Not to mention how much money was wasted by "NPR, The Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard School of Public Health" to discover whether low-income families are "particularly hard-hit" by the economic downturn. Posted by: jk at July 19, 2008 2:35 PM
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
But without worthless studies and news reports that are easily debunked with the truth, what would these pseudo-economists and "fake but accurate" reporters do? If they didn't have these taxpayer-supported jobs, they'd...they'd weigh 350 pounds each, be on welfare, living in subsidized housing, complaining that they had to cut back on ice cream! Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 20, 2008 10:46 PM
But jk thinks:
As the young folk say, LOL. I didn't recognize it as a jobs engine. I was thinking of James Lileks, who counters such studies with "Dang, I thought the poor were going to come out really well this time." Posted by: jk at July 21, 2008 10:49 AMPretty Funny!Conan is a little past my bedtime, but this clip made me laugh: July 18, 2008Another Grim MilestoneJames Freeman, assistant editor for the WSJ Ed Page, has a guest editorial on the, um, WSJ editorial page. It starts with some stark news: Is the great American financial engine that gave the world Intel and Google grinding to a halt? Last quarter marked the first time in 30 years that not a single company backed by venture capital went public in the U.S. He admits that markets are off and that there are other, exogenous factors. But a drought is a drought, and I find this a brutal reminder that while the market system is extremely durable, individual markets can be quite fragile. America's dominant capital markets have plenty of competition. And these competitors lack SarbOx and Spitzerism. This is bad news for the U.S. economy. Does anyone think that we would be better off if Bill Gates and Michael Dell had sold out to corporate behemoths early in their careers, instead of leading their firms for years as public companies? Would consumers enjoy the same vibrant market in Web services if Yahoo had gobbled up a nascent Google? How powerful would our computers be if Intel had become an IBM subsidiary, instead of going public in 1971? That golden goose is not immortal. This long without a venture IPO is a bad sign. A worse sign is that the American government is talking about more punishment: cutting back on Golden Goose Chow® when we need eggs, and [this metaphor has been terminated by the Editors] I'm not sure more taxes, additional regulation, higher energy costs, and a Rube Goldberg cap and trade plan will bring capital back to the markets. Naked Shorts Bother You?I cringed when SEC chief Christopher Cox moved to prohibit naked shorts against Fannie and Freddie. And not just because my inner Beavis and Butthead heard Cox, naked, shorts, and Fannie in the same sentence. In my mind, a naked short is a pure derivative play that allows a trader to bet on a stock's going down. I'm a dull, broad-index, ETF guy myself, but I believe pure option plays provide more efficient price information and get risk in the hands of those who can best handle it. This call from a sharp GOP administration official like Cox sounded like blaming oil prices on "evil speculators." To my surprise, Donald L. Luskin strongly criticized the practice on Kudlow last night. I just sent a letter to Mr. Luskin suggesting that he expound on it. (Heh: just got a response, he says "Done." While I was typing this he answered and posted a response.) "Naked" shorting and "naked" option-writing have nothing to do with each other, except for the coincidence of the term "naked." In the case of option-writing, the "naked" writer is simply taking a short position in a put or a call without a risk-offsetting position in the underlying asset (usually a stock). I have no problem with that at all. A short option, whether "naked" or not, is simply a contract to sell (in the case of a short call) or buy (in the case of a short put) at a fixed price by a fixed date. No issue there. The WSJ Editorial page today is a little closer to my position. They're not full-throated endorsers by any means: Not that the SEC's emergency order to bar naked short selling is quite the disaster proclaimed by some traders. It's possible that it won't do much harm, and this is a titanic achievement for any policy coming out of Washington these days. At the end of the day, the order is not a ban on all short selling, which is a bet that a stock price will fall and is a critical ingredient for efficient markets. I am on vacation, so I have some time to ponder Luskin's response. I understand the technical difference but I am not sure I grab a philosophical difference that makes one side a legitimate play and the other the equivalent of kiting checks. I'm keeping an open mind.
But Boulder Refugee thinks:
The Refugee thinks that Mr. Luskin is using the definition of "kiting" at loosely. Here is a great discussion of kiting. Basically, kiting is going from one instition to another with intent to defraud. In other words, one writes a check on Bank A to pay Bank B, and on Bank B to pay Bank C. Since the banks (often) give immediate credit for a deposit, even though they have not actually received the funds through the system. This is very different from check floating. When one floats a check, one might pay a bill by check and drop it in the mails knowing that he has insufficient funds at that moment. He also knows that it will take a day for the mail to be delivered and another day for the check to be deposited. Therefore, on day 2 he transfers funds to cover the check. While acknowledging that this is technically illegal, The Refugee will admit to having done such and suspects that most bill payers have done so at one time or another. The key is no intent to defraud; the funds are there to cover the withdrawal. It is worth noting that that neither the financial institution nor the the Fed look at mail and deposit timing and says, "Wait, it's not possible..." The Refugee believes that short selling contains no attempt to defraud and is therefore not analogous to kiting. If one sells short and guesses wrong, he must pay the difference and take the loss in a timely manner - just like covering a check. Open financial markets are critical to efficiency and liquidity. One final note on efficiency. Unlike buying an selling stocks, deriviatives are a zero-sum game. For every winner, there is a corresponding loser. That's what makes them so efficient (and brutal to the casual investor). They are a perfect reflection of accurate pricing in the marketplace. If you eliminate the possiblity of either selling or buying under certain conditions, then the efficiency is lost. Some investors, rather than losing part of their investment, will lose it all. That additiona risk will be built into the equation causing even greater volitility. Posted by: Boulder Refugee at July 18, 2008 12:44 PM
But jk thinks:
I almost offered the disclaimer that this ex dirty hippie guitar player had indeed practiced bona-fide check kiting. Write rent check on account A on the 29th. Deposit check from account B into account A on the 31st. Deposit money into account B on the 3rd. You can tell from the date spreads this was a long time ago. Computers killed the kiting star. The comparison seems apt because the check kiter has intent to pay, yet it clearly is fraudulent.
But Perry Eidelbus thinks:
Coincidentally, I was explaining this to someone at lunchtime. Luskin is correct. BR, you bring up derivatives, efficiency, etc., but those are beside the point. Re-read what Luskin said. This isn't about *all* short-selling, but a kind of short-selling that can very well be fraudulent. Some people think that short-selling should be illegal, because it's supposedly selling something you own. No, you're selling something that you've *borrowed*, with the contractual promise to repay what you borrowed (by definition you're borrowing and repaying something fungible). But naked shorting is entirely different, which were my words too at lunchtime. Naked shorting means you haven't even borrowed the shares yet. So as Luskin points out, let's say you want to short-sell XYZ. You're getting money with the implicit promise that you'll deliver the agreed-upon number of shares at settlement time. That means you have to borrow the shares by the end of settlement. So it *is* like check-kiting, because settlement typically won't happen for a few business days -- you'll have that much time to borrow the shares. But what if you can't? And that's the problem: it's entirely possible for the number of shorted shares to increase the number of floating shares (meaning shares available on the market). The WSJ editorial is so ignorant of how financial firms' technology works. There's no need for them to "scramble" to fix technology. All a company needs to do right now is a policy change: no naked shorting, with the threat of "disciplinary action, up to and including termination" if someone breaches that rule. Then the company can look at some way to audit Where I'll disagree with Luskin, to a very very minor extent, is that naked shorting is necessarily fraudulent, because you're receiving the money and representing that you *at the time you sell* have the shares to deliver, but the short-seller might in fact have every intent to deliver. Maybe he thinks he can borrow them but then can't. That's also I don't believe there should be any "regulations." Rather than new SEC rules, there instead should be prosecution and incarceration of people who commit naked short-selling and then don't deliver the shares. People go to jail for writing bad checks, why not for short-selling shares and then failing to borrow and deliver? Both are fraud. Disclosure: as some of you may remember, I'm a compliance analyst on the personal trading end. Our firm is very strict, more so than just about anyone else, particularly on short-selling. We don't allow our employees to short anything that's long in our clients' portfolios. Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at July 18, 2008 5:03 PM
But Boulder Refugee thinks:
The Refugee will agree with some of what PE says, that is failure to cover a short should be treated the same as writing a bad check. That said, I disagree with the basic premise that naked shorts are inherently fraudulent. As an analogy, when I go to the bank and borrow money to buy a house, I'm representing that I'll be able to pay it back. Obviously, I do not have the money at this time to cover the debt. I'm betting that I'll earn the money in an amount and time to pay it back according the covenants. However, I may lose my job that would prevent me from paying back. Fraudulent? No. Of course, I'll lose the house and whatever equity I put into it. I realize it could be a fraudent transaction if I lie about my income or circumstances, but that fact that I do not today have the money to repay the loan does not in itself constitute the basis fraud, or we'd all be in jail. Posted by: Boulder Refugee at July 22, 2008 3:45 PM"I am a small eye poet."If my posts seem more trivial than usual, I am on vacation this week. Grinding, tedious partisan hackery will return in full force next week. But today, I got an email from a niece of mine that made me chuckle. There's a T-Shirt at Café Press: EVERYTIME YOU POST WITH THE CAPS LOCK ON, e e cummings kills a kitten. Following a link in the comments, I found this. Norman Friedman of the English department at Grand Valley State University (Go Lakers!) makes a good case that mister Cummings's name should be typeset with conventional case. I always use lower case for my two character sobriquet (which adds three keystrokes to keep MS-Word® from auto-correcting it). Without ee, I am losing academic support. Dodged a bulletThe Wall Street Journal reports that Starbucks has released the locations of the 600 stores that will be closed in their restructuring, complete with a list of the ill-fated locations. There are only nine in Colorado; none is a regular haunt of mine. In fact, I think I've only been to one of them. My regular drive-thrus are spared. Whew!
Posted by jk at 10:40 AM
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July 17, 2008Why are we in Iraq?"Joe from Denver wants to know, 'Why are we in Iraq and how will we know when we've won the war?'" Listen to Bob Schaffer, Colorado's Republican candidate for the US Senate, explain it. In politics this is what's known as a direct hit.
But jk thinks:
But Bush Lied!!! There were no WMDs!! My poor Congressman was duped -- it's Bush's fault! Posted by: jk at July 18, 2008 10:50 AM
But Boulder Refugee thinks:
It don't get any better'n that! Posted by: Boulder Refugee at July 18, 2008 12:10 PMQuote of the DayIt's a photo caption: “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid walks from his Chevrolet Suburban (left) to attend a news conference on energy efficiency Wednesday in Upper Senate Park. Reid rode in the sport utility vehicle from the Capitol to the event, which was across the street.” |