February 28, 2005Flat Tax FeverI posted about Slovakia's Flat Tax and private pension system. John Fund at OpinionJournal documents its success in the former Soviet Union as Estonia, Romania, Georgia, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine have all implemented flat rates. Despite all of its advantages, the flat tax faces enormous ideological opposition. Envy and the lust for the political control that complicated tax regimes can provide are powerful motivations to keep progressive tax systems in place. Karl Marx in "The Communist Manifesto" was among the first to call for "a heavy progressive or graduated income tax" at a time when a flat rate was the norm in advanced countries. He listed it as second in the list of priorities for a new society based on the class struggle.
But Silence Dogood thinks:
"...lust for the political control that complicated tax regimes can provide..." Yep, pretty sure you got your answer right there. Clinton '08 Receives Key EndorsementNo surprise, but I do like the headline: Yahoo! News - Clinton: Hillary Would Be Great President TOKYO - Former President Clinton (news - web sites) said Sunday that his wife, Hillary, would be an excellent choice as the first female leader of the world's most powerful nation. On the web
Posted by jk at 1:52 PM
Hangin' with the 87.5%I like movies, but there's no way I could sit through more than 20 minutes of the Oscars. Music is my life and I can take far less of the Grammies. I watched zero of last night's show. I'm glad Jamie Foxx won; he was born to play Ray Charles. And I have always been a Chris Rock fan. That'll get me kicked out of the conservative club. But, Zogby International says most of my GOP buddies were not tuned in last night either. The survey finds that 25% of American adults plan to watch the annual awards show, while nearly two-thirds (63%) say they do not plan to. Another one-in-eight (12%) have not decided whether they will watch the Oscars or not. Watched Buffy Season Two, Episodes six and seven, "Halloween" and "Lie To Me." I'd make that same choice any night of the year.
Posted by jk at 12:14 PM
| What do you think? [2]
But Silence Dogood thinks:
OK, I ended up watching most of the Oscar's due to family members who were keen to watch. You would not have liked Chris Rock's opening monologue, lots of Bush bashing, pandering to the liberal crowd? The other part I found a bit annoying was his very "black" slant on humor. He did a taped "man on the spot" type segment where he asked black folks at a local theater if they had seen the nominated films. Most had not. Funny, but I bet you would get the same answer at any local theater, regardless of its location or the racial makeup of the neighborhood. Now the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, there is a liberal elite institution if there ever was one. A movie's nomination and its popularity are far from one and the same. The real divide here is between those few people who truly appreciate a film for its acting, music, or set design, and the rest of us who just want to be entertained. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 28, 2005 2:41 PM
But johngalt thinks:
I would say that your analysis of the difference between AMPAS and the viewing public is insightful but inverted. The typical viewer truly appreciates the technical aspects of film BECAUSE it is entertaining, while AMPAS is entertained by the fact they can push the envelope of "acceptable" further every year. Posted by: johngalt at February 28, 2005 2:57 PMWard Churchill: Principle vs. PrincipalBelmont Club links to a Denver Post story about The University of Colorado's latest attempt to extricate itself from the Churchill contretemps. (Whoa doggies -- that's a bad sentence!) But the good perfesser has his principles. He is making a brave stand for free speech and the values of anti-capitalism. And he will not be bought, er, cheaply: University of Colorado officials are considering offering Ward Churchill an early retirement package that could end an increasingly uncomfortable standoff with the controversial professor. ... David Lane, Churchill's attorney, said he has not been contacted about a buyout offer. But, he said, while his primary focus is on protecting Churchill's constitutional right to speak out, he would be willing to listen to a university proposal. "If they offer $10 million, I would think about it. If they offer him $10, I wouldn't," Lane said. I wish I could really believe that Churchill is an outlier. My guess is that a large portion, if not a majority, of liberal arts instructors at major universities hold similar thoughts. I hope most of them hold more academic credentials but don't guess that they hold wiser opinions. Being a drop-out feels pretty good this week, perhaps I am just enjoying the sour grapes. UPDATE: Maybe CU can save a million or two if they can fire him for plagiarism.
But Silence Dogood thinks:
"liberal" arts - it's right there in the name. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 28, 2005 11:50 AM
But johngalt thinks:
I wasn't aware that one of CU's liberal "arts" programs was "Original Works by Photocopier." Ward obviously received an "A" and not just because the instructor approved of his politics. Posted by: johngalt at February 28, 2005 4:00 PMFebruary 27, 2005A Real American HeroSaturday evening, I met someone you don't meet everyday. A real American hero. After our SePA YCOP kickoff meeting, I and three other compatriots (one of which was frequent pstupidonymous commentor and Montgomery County Vice Chair Mark Haupert) went over to Bryn Mawr's Great American Pub for some brews and political conversation. Whilst the four of us were drinking and discussing the battles of the Revolutionary War (of all things), a young Marine in full uniform walked in, alone, and sat down. A chest full of medals, including a Purple Heart on top of them all. Immediately the four of fell over ourselves thanking him for his service and buying him drinks. We rearranged ourselves to include him in the middle of our group. He spoke of General Washington (not President, but General as Washington himself had preferred), and his role in the revolution, as well as the founding of the Marines, and the significance of the decor on an officers hat. Eventually we got to asking about his medals, particularly the Purple Heart. The level of humility he showed was incredible. Very humble, speaking very softly, he was just there doing his job, doing what he was asked to do. As it turns out, he was with one of the first groups of Marines into Baghdad, and was wounded when changing the barrel on a 50 caliber machine gun. A thirteen year old kid fired an RPG at him. He woke up in Germany. What struck me the most when speaking to him was how young he looked. He was drinking, so he had to be 21, but he looked like a kid; but most importantly and perhaps most inspiringly, a hero.
But jk thinks:
Semper Fi! Posted by: jk at February 28, 2005 11:24 AMFebruary 26, 2005Egyptian Elections (Yawn)Yahoo! News - Mubarak Orders Egypt Election Law Changes Hmm. I wonder what prompted that? UPDATE: Tigerhawk thinks it may have been Secratery Rice's "displeasure..." Freedom on the March
Posted by jk at 12:21 PM
February 25, 2005Bush's Europe TripLarry Kudlow posts a complimentary report of the President's European trip and speech in Brussels. He compliments the Sharanskyesque focus on Democracy, the nod to the Slovakian flat tax -- all worthy of high marks. He then closes with W's view on climate change, praising his Schumpeterian approach over the European regulatory method. Then Bush shows his hand on global climate change. But it is not the Kyoto version, which would punish economic growth and drive up unemployment. Instead, the President relies on “Emerging technologies, such as hydrogen-powered vehicles, electricity from renewable energy sources, clean coal technology, will encourage economic growth that is environmentally responsible.” Second Bush Administration
Posted by jk at 7:10 PM
On Hating HillaryJames Taranto at the WSJ expands a Political Diary post from a couple of days ago into a full column today. In "Hillary's Secret Weapon" he lays down a very plausible GOP failure in '08. They may help her in the general election, too. One reason Democrats failed to unseat President Bush was that they were blinded by their hatred for him. This made them overconfident, as they mistook their emotions for facts, assuming that because they couldn't stand him, he must be (as one candidate put it) a "miserable failure." They obsessed over nonissues (Halliburton, Mr. Bush's National Guard service), and they failed to realize that their totally negative campaign reflected badly on them, not on Mr. Bush. If Mrs. Clinton is the nominee in 2008, Republicans risk repeating these mistakes. Sanator Clinton can capture the nomination in spite of some moderate stances, then run right in the general. I am frequently pessimistic in politics, but I think she is virtually unbeatable. Unless the GOP runs Secretary Rice.
But johngalt thinks:
I have a hard time imagining Hilary successfully pulling the wool over the eyes of the voting public, as she clearly intends to do. Bill was slick and handsome, and hadn't espoused the sort of radicalism that is already on Hilary's resume (National Health Care.) On a visceral level, she's also got to break that annoying habit of saying "um" in unscripted speech. On Russert last week I counted four "um's" in a single sentence. Posted by: johngalt at February 26, 2005 4:59 PM
But jk thinks:
Well, yeah, without President Bush's oratorical skills, it is hard to see her making it. With all due respect, brother JohnGalt, that is *exactly* what Taranto is saying. The swing voters are not counting ums; they don't remember Nationalized Health Care (unless they wanted it); and the media have proven that they will not hold her past against her. And she will get the greatest handlers and coaches you can get. Misunderestimate at your own peril... Posted by: jk at February 26, 2005 5:37 PMSlovakian ImportThe WSJ Ed page wonders abot a Solvakian import... President Bush got the warmest European welcome of the week yesterday in Slovakia, where he returned the compliment by hailing its tax reform. "I complimented the Prime Minister on putting policies in place that have helped this economy grow," Mr. Bush said about Mikulas Dzurinda. "The most important responsibility we have at home is to make sure our people can find work. And the President put a flat tax [at 19%] in place; he simplified his tax code, which has helped to attract capital and create economic vitality and growth." Economics and Markets
Posted by jk at 4:16 PM
Corporate vs CommunityKarl at phillyfuture.org asks (or cites)...
That's what Free Press asks in a recent piece. I think WiFi as a public utility makes sense and if you foster decent competition between public and corporate as in the UPS/FedEx model, great innovation will occur. Federal law dictates that you if want to ship a letter via UPS or FedEx (or any third party), they must charge you twice the USPS or three dollars. Which ever is greater. Doesn't exactly meet my standard of competition. Not exactly the same thing, but it would be if.... Competition and innovation online occur not in delivery, but on content. The question is, do I want community or corporate control? With community control, it immediately becomes a political question. And you can get nonsense like this. Corporate control means open the taps, I can sort it out, and if I don't like it, I have options and I can take my business elsewhere. But around here, I'm preachin' to the choir.
Posted by AlexC at 3:00 PM
| What do you think? [2]
But jk thinks:
The ThreeSources Choirboys, Live at Leeds! Once the so called community becomes too large for a single individual to wield influence, then it becomes a commons problem. The pejorative connotation of "Corporate" never ceases to amaze. A Corporation is no more than a legal framework to shared risk, responsibility and reward; you would think most folks would like that! Posted by: jk at February 25, 2005 4:03 PM
But johngalt thinks:
The corporate villain is always the CEO and his cronies. Whenever they earn more than Ralph Nader's "10 times the minimum wage" ceiling, the "community" advocates scream foul. This violates even their sense of "some are more equal than others." Posted by: johngalt at February 26, 2005 5:09 PMFebruary 24, 2005Che - No!Here is a free blog ad for a great product. I am buying one but we'll see whether or not I have the stones to wear it around Boulder. I'll try the Trident Bookstore/Coffeehouse/CommunistHQ -- that'd be fun.
Alex chimes in:
But Riza Rivera thinks:
Don't forget to order one for me and we can get kicked out of Boulder together!!! Riza Posted by: Riza Rivera at February 25, 2005 3:48 PMReason-based ProgressivesWhen I read Jonathan Chait's TNR piece I knew I had to blog it. My first thought was "this is the craziest thing I have ever seen, I have to show everybody how wacko these folks are!" And I still think they is. Then reading AlexC's excellent post on Social Security and basic Democratic intransigence, I was tempted to add this as a comment. But it needs its own post and what I hope will develop into its own comment thread. TNR is not "The Nation;" they are partisan but they are thoughtful. So hear it is. Folks really believe this to be true. The Cliff Note version is that God comes down (see, we already lost JohnGalt) and tells one political party that the other one is right. Chait is well balanced in his summaries and descriptions, but the thesis is that the thoughtful lefties all say "it's a fair cop!" and turn Conservative ---- but those ideological right wing moonbats, boy... Now imagine the opposite were to happen. God appears in order to affirm liberal precepts: Current tax levels barely affect economic incentives, social programs provide tremendous economic security at modest cost to growth, and most regulations achieve their intended effects without producing undue distortions. Would economic conservatives likewise abandon their views? Some certainly would, but a great many would not. Economic conservatism, unlike liberalism, would survive having all its empirical underpinnings knocked out from beneath it. I'm no less a partisan hack than Chait (and, yes, he's a much better writer) but I would have little difficulty asserting the exact opposite. The left is driven by ideology and the right wants to optimize growth and have the trains run on time. My example would be globalization. It has brought untold wealth and diversity to rich and poor, but the left fights it because it doesn't measure up to their standards of fairness. From the other side
Posted by jk at 11:09 AM
Hearts and MindsThe Wall Street Journal Editorial Page sums up (free site) a story that was traversing the blogosphere this week. Druze leader and Lebanese parliamentarian Walid Jumblatt opposed the Iraq war and described Paul Wolfowitz as a "virus." But he has had a change of heart: "It's strange for me to say this," he recently told Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, "but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq. I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, eight million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world. The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing." Lebanon has a great history of pluralism and openness. Restoring it by way of yet another MidEastern democracy would be a huge advancement.
But johngalt thinks:
"Stupid American cowboy... it'll take decades to undo the damage he's doing to World Peace." Dagny and I are currently reading Sharansky's book. Good stuff. Posted by: johngalt at February 25, 2005 2:37 AMFebruary 23, 2005The Social Security DebateSenator Santorum was in Philadelphia today talking about Social Security at my alma-mater(*).
From Daily Kos:
Today, I picketed at one of Rick Santorum's Privatization town hall meetings at Drexel University in Philadelphia. Anti-privatization forces and Drexel Dems out-numbered Pro-privatization forces and College Repubs. 6 to 1. There were about 40 of us total -- but CNN, the Washington Post, ABC were all covering our anti-privatization protest. CNN started filming, so we started to chant "Hey-Hey Ho-Ho, Rick Santorum has got to go!" In response, the Drexel Republicans retorted with their own chant: "Hey, hey. Ho, ho. Social Security has got to go!" Our jaws just about jawed as CNN continued to film. We stopped our chant, and let the Repubs take over -- they were doing our job for us! Who has been feeding Drexel Repubs the lead paint??? Well, at least they are honest. Ha. Of course it's about ending Social Security. As we know it. You really can't chant that, I suppose. Ulitimately, it's quite simple. With George Bush's ownership society idea, we'll start putting more of our own money into more of our accounts. Sure, now it's 1/3 (or 2/3 depending on your point of view), but sooner or later as the personalization catches on, it'll ratchet up to 4/5, 9/10s, maybe even 100%. At that point, Social Security would become a government mandated personal retirement account. Despite my conservative neoliberalism (government is not always the best answer), it has to be government mandated because there's always going to be a knucklehead NOT saving for the future and we'll end up footing his bill anyway. Tragedy of the Commons in a way. I'm a bit of a pessimist, so we should really account for future governments screwing it up, but that's the direction we're heading in right now; and it's a good thing. Now, if your view of Social Security is a massive government run safety net for all individuals to contribute, and only some to collect from, then yes, Social Security is going to end. But fear not, fellow compassionate American, we're always going to support the handicapped or the infirm, or the tragically wronged with government funds. That's not going away. The ponzi scheme called Social Security is. One question I'm left with is more of a meta-question.
But Silence Dogood thinks:
Thank you, yes I do believe that is the plan for SS and I am for the ending of SS as we know it. My trouble is and always will be how we manage the changeover. Kudos to Pres. Bush for having the guts to put forth a plan, but I can't stand up and cheer until he has the guts to really define the plan. I am a bit of a pessimist too and my rule of thumb is that when a politician describes a new plan and only talks about the good part (that wonderful ownership of compounding interest) you better grab your wallet. Someone needs to define for me how we phase the current SS out. I am almost halfway through my working years, but hey, I can look up past performance of one of the proposed funds and calculate my investment plus interest, and if the Treasury Dept. deposits those funds in my account I am good to go. But since that ain't gonna happen I want to know what kind of credit I am going to get for what I have already paid into SS. That's the not so simple part. There is a big 'ol devil in them thar details. I keep harping on this because there is a law of unintended consequences, like that pointed out about wage restrictions during WWII and the birth of employer paid health benefits. Some of these consequences cannot be foreseen, but some can - campaign finance reform anyone? There needs to be some due diligence here which means talking about how we really transition from our current SS to the new government mandated personal retirement accounts. President Bush makes it sound like he is a gutsy get it done leader, but peek behind the curtain a little and you see a traditional politician promising you a free lunch. This is where my Dems ought to be. Sadly Alex C. is right, they have become the "against" party. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 23, 2005 10:13 AMFebruary 22, 2005Social SecurityI have a new favorite magazine. A few years ago, it was "National Review." Then "The Weekly Standard" overtook it. Now, I gotta say I get pretty excited when a new "The American Enterprise" rolls in. It only publishes eight times a year, so it lacks the news quality of the other two. Yet TAE takes one topic on per issue and brings a dozen great thinkers and writers together to really flesh it out. Then the "Bird's Eye" column contextualizes all of them. The March 2005 issue, From Alms to Ownership, is a perfect example. Social Security reform is examined from a market perspective by James Glassman, historical perspective by Stephen Moore et al, and a philosophical perspective by William Tucker. The "Bird's eye" overview is interesting as it describes the America of 1935, giving us perspective on when the plan was engineered. "What a year," it starts out: The world's first full-color feature film has just been released. Now there are whispers of special-effects-laden Hollywood blockbusters to come over the next several years. Two projects thought to be gestating: an adaptation of a much-anticipated new book called Gone With the Wind, and some kind of musical based on the Wizard of Oz children's stories. More films are also expected from the sensationally popular new comedy team that debuted last year: The Three Stooges. And while America is wiring itself for majority telephone ownership, it is deeply into economic depression and as yet-undiscredited Stalinism holds sway as the wave of the future. So: Do you want to base your security in old age on a program engineered at the same time as the Model A and the vacuum-tube radio? Has work changed much since the era when slopping pigs for Auntie Em was a typical job? Does the boundary between state and individual look different now that the USSR has gone from progressive polestar to oppressive flop? Has American finance advanced from the decades when the only choices for ordinary savers were the passbook, the mason jar, or the mattress? Are the retirement goals of Americans still the same as in the days when the Bambino retired? Or is it time for Social Security to enjoy a major-league update? This is the big domestic political issue for this next Congress and this Presidential term. You can read a sampling of these articles online but I would encourage anybody to purchase and read this issue cover-to-cover. You will not see a better exegesis on the conservative position on Social Security reform anywhere. Threesources regulars: holler and I'll buy it for you or take you out to lunch when you're finished so we can discuss it.
But jk thinks:
Fuzzy math! I see the principal alone at $233,316. (4% of the first 90K, my salary numbers match yours). Joe is a millionaire with less than 10% return, on one sixth of his Social Security -- and the rest of the benefits are still there for his less fortunate friends. Before lunch, see what happens if you let Joe invest ALL of his Social Security. My inheritance is not based on leftovers from a 30 year retirement. Just something for Joe's family if some non-union Wal*Mart forklift driver runs him down. My spreadsheet is http://threesources.com/ss_payments.xls Posted by: jk at February 22, 2005 6:55 PM
But Silence Dogood thinks:
You will have to excuse me if I misunderestimated President Bush, but what I heard was that we would only take a small portion of SS - 4 percentage points to put into private accounts. After running these numbers I would have to assume that he meant that 4% of your salary would go into a private account. That would net Joe almost $2.3M at retirement. This is a great option I just don't see how we do the changeover - how to pay SS until some sunset date with 1/3 less money coming in (2004 SS tax is 12.4% including employer contribution). Not sure where your 1/6 number comes from. The real result I like is that this money is not available for the general budget like SS funds. The bad part comes when you figure how much it will cost Uncle Sam to cover the SS payments without 1/3 of the revenue and what that will do to Joe's net return. This says nothing of course about how Uncle Sam pays for defense and all the other budget items without the SS funds in the pot. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 22, 2005 7:40 PM
But jk thinks:
If one is onboard for personal accounts and just worried about transition costs, there are three ways I see to make the switch: 1) Borrow it. I know, I know, the deficit, Reubenomics, bla, bla... But if my house roof is going to fall in in a few years, I can refinance and hope that the value of the house and my income grows to cover it. Likewise, we can finance some payments (easier now before it gets worse). The new investment capital could light up the economy and we would pay off the d e b t as we always have -- through economic growth. I know I am a broken record on this but, again, we are moving unfunded liabilities (promises on which we won't renege) to securitized d e b t. Only the paper d e b t is increasing. 2) If supply-side is not your thing, let's help it out with some reasonable adjustments to benefits: indexing to prices instead of wages and a transition to a later retirement age. 55-65 no change, 45-55 plus two years, 35-44 plus three years, everybody else plus four years. I would also point out that not everyone is going to immediately reduce his/her payments by 1/3. Older workers will not participate, and some younger workers might elect not to or choose a smaller amount. 3) In compromise for that, I'll risk Larry Kudlow's wrath and permit a rise in the cap from $90K to $115. A small increase for the six figure crowd should be a good trade for personal accounts. Of course, I wouldn't advocate #3 -- I offer that as a spirit of compromise. But with those reasonable measures I have raised revenue and reduced payments. With this lowered pressure we could certainly finance the rest.
But Silence Dogood thinks:
OK now, who's math is fuzzy? From www.whitehouse.gov : Personal retirement accounts would start gradually. Yearly contribution limits would be raised over time, eventually permitting all workers to set aside 4 percentage points of their payroll taxes in their accounts.
First there is a huge difference between 4% of your income and 4% of your payroll tax, i.e. your SS withholding. Specifically, 4% of 6.2% is just under .25% or one quarter of one percent and that is the value I used for my original calculation. I came up a bit short of the quarter million the white house envisions, but where the heck did their number come from? An average of $35,000 over their career? Adjusted for inflation? $35K per year in 2050 is going to be living on the street eating dog food from the can. Can someone clarify for me 4% of what is going into my personal retirement account?
But jk thinks:
I see the ambiguity. And there is, of course, no specific legislation to base calculations on. But if it's 4% of payroll taxes (phased in at that!) then it is not worth the effort. I have to think we are discussing 4% of payroll, coming out of payroll taxes. President Bush doesn't like "smallball" and I don't see anyone grabbing the infamous third rail for less than a quarter of one percent. The $35K example is not going to be retiring in a five star hotel in the Bahamas. But that is a quarter of a million that he owns and controls, instead of a gub'mint check that he has to worry about. Seems pretty good for a guy who did not light up the world with career success.
But Silence Dogood thinks:
I am afraid I don't get your accounting explanation about trading debt but not increasing it. If all these were long term debts then I think I would agree, but SS is based on cash flow. You have to mail out monthly checks with real dollars, dollars that we currently pay in. If we stop paying in part of that cash then the government will have to borrow to make up the difference. Now back to "Average Joe" recalculated this time that he puts away 4% of his income annually with no cap at 90K (it's his money, no need for a cap). Now let's assume some more small details in the current Bush plan. (to the extent that those details exist) The official number I keep hearing for these low fee but conservatively managed accounts is 4.6% average annual return. Now the government can issue debt at a projected 3% rate to cover current SS obligations. If Joe elects to have a private account then when he retires he will be responsible for his portion of those SS obligations meaning that his net rate of return is 1.6%. He now retires at 67 with over $308K net in his fund which at first blush seems not bad as you say for someone who did not light up the world with career success. Except that to reach that figure he would have to get his 5% annual raise which is really not bad and thus would retire with a $312K annual salary. So his $308K really isn't going to go very far. The question then becomes what will the actual SS benefits be at that time and can he combine that with his nest egg to provide a livable retirement benefit. An interesting historical note about your referenced article that was sort of glossed over with a reference to average lifespan is that in 1935 a lower income worker had no real expectation of any retirement. This concept that we all get to stop working and spend the last 15 years or so of our life without a job is a fairly recent one. Working your whole life was a reality for lower income workers and is becoming so again with the escalating cost of health care. This is a harsh reality that society may have to accept. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 23, 2005 3:10 PMSuccess has many fathersTrying to honestly appraise the "US went it alone in Iraq" argument, I had to admit real disappointment with our friends to the North. Sure, France and Russia were bought off by UNScam, but the Anglosphere was broken. It should have included Britain, Australia and Canada. I know Canada has moved left and I know the conservatives up there have failed to construct a national party, yes, I do read Mark Steyn. But that was one country I felt should've been on freedom's side. Martin will announce 30 troops and a million Canadian dollars (I would normally make a weak currency joke about Canada here, but with the dollar trading at 1.32 Euro today I'll pass...) Paul Martin to announce that Canada sending 30 soldiers to train Iraqis Well done, eh! Hat-tip: Belmont Club Freedom on the March
Posted by jk at 12:53 PM
Hey The FDA Did Something Good!This would be the second time I have written something good about the FDA. I wrote favorably about Dr. Mark McClellan's appointment to be Food and Drug Administration commissioner. Dr. McClellan tried his best with the giant bureaucracy and I was sad to see him leave. Yet, there is a bright moment at the FDA under acting FDA Commissioner Lester Crawford. The WSJ Ed page points out (paid site) that at a three day hearing, those who would keep a drug off the market for fear of whom it would harm were forced to account for those whom it could help. Particular credit here goes to acting FDA Commissioner (now the official nominee for the job) Lester Crawford, for convening an unprecedented three days of open hearings on the issue. Cox-2 critics -- including the FDA's own David Graham, who has been feted as heroic in the press -- were given a fair hearing. But in front of the panel of distinguished outside statisticians and clinicians (read: doctors who actually treat patients), he came off as less than fully scientific and, well, a bit uncaring. Grin and bear it. Unless you died of colon cancer while the FDA was dreaming up more hurdles for Erbitux. The drug was finally approved, but 15,000 people died and Sam Waksal and Martha Stewart went to prison. Another day's work for the FDA. Pharmaceuticals
Posted by jk at 11:11 AM
February 21, 2005Death of a PlaywrightArthur Miller died last Thursday. The playwright most famous for "Death of a Salesman" received a lot of accolades, yet some conservative press has veered off "de mortuis nil nisi bonum" and pointed out some problems with his work and his philosophy. Sugarchuck e-mailed me about Terry Teachout's Wall Street Journal Piece -- he found it very harsh. Well, Mark Steyn is no friendlier. In today's Spectator, he has a go at Miller's anti-Americanism and the esteem to which he is held in Britain. I liked this line: Even in his disparagement, Miller was right to grasp that the salesman is a critical American archetype. In the dictatorships he admired, from the USSR to Cuba, you don’t need them: there’s no competition, no choice, nothing on the shelves, and every checkout line in the supermarket is perforce for five items or less. And in a one-party state, politicians don’t need to be salesmen, either — or at least not to their own people: Gorbachev and Castro were very canny in the way they flattered Miller, understanding that a man of such unbounded self-regard judged the health of nations and political systems in the same way he did the health of the American theatre — by how fulsomely they acknowledge his genius. And Fidel and Gorby were applauding long after Broadway had fallen silent. It's just one more work of art that leans left: I can't not read Steinbeck -- or Stephen King -- because I disagree. I watch "It's a Wonderful Life" every year with my internal economist bound and gagged. I enjoy the art and just know that they're wrong. Willy Loman is one of the archetypical characters in American fiction. Sugarchuck ranks him with Huck, Tom Sawyer and Gatsby You create a character like that and as Lileks would say you've proven you can "hit the right keys." Requiescat in pace. On the web
Posted by jk at 7:46 PM
Happy Presidents DayWell, I'm working but the market is closed and the blogosphere is silent -- a pretty dull day. My friends at research arms of major Universities are working today, though they got MLK day off. Worthy of a blog post? We couldn't have had Dr. King without Presidents Washington and Lincoln. Naaah. But here is an interesting fact: this lawyer claims that there is no paper trail for a legal change from Washington's Birthday to Presidents Day. We all act like it happened, but Jason Bezis says it didn't: For instance, it has been widely accepted as fact and reported -- by numerous major newspapers and educational Web sites -- that Richard Nixon dubbed the holiday Presidents Day in 1971. Kurt Vonnegut made a passionate stance for not replacing Armistice Day with Veteran's Day. I think he and Mr. Bezis both have uphill battles. I cannot think of two men more worthy of honor than Lincoln and Washington but feel both would be more inclined to have us go to work in their honor -- not hang out at the mall. For the record, I would apply that to Dr. King as well. It would be better to send children to school to learn of his works. That's honor. On the web
Posted by jk at 7:12 PM
Uncle Duke, RIPI was a big Hunter S. Thompson fan way back when. But the last couple of his books I read not only made me question whether he had lost it -- they really made me question whether my original approbation was well placed. But I don't have to think or write. Lileks has nailed it: HST killed himself. He never would have “turned his life around” – that’s a hard thing to try when the room’s been spinning for 40 years. Depression? Wouldn’t be surprising. A bad verdict from the doc? Wouldn’t be surprising. A great writer in his prime, but the DVD of his career would have the last two decades on the disc reserved for outtakes and bloopers. It was all bile and spittle at the end, and it was hard to read the work without smelling the dank sweat of someone consumed by confusion, anger, sudden drunken certainties and the horrible fear that when he sat down to write, he could only muster a pale parody of someone else’s satirical version of his infamous middle period. I feel sorry for him, but I’ve felt sorry for him for years. File under Capote, Truman – meaning, whatever you thought of the latter-day persona, don’t forget that there was a reason he had a reputation. Read "Hell's Angels." That was a man who could hit the keys right. I'll go with that assessment. Requiescat in pace. UPDATE: When I die, I wish Tom Wolfe would write my obituary Yet he was also part of a century-old tradition in American letters, the tradition of Mark Twain, Artemus Ward and Petroleum V. Nasby, comic writers who mined the human comedy of a new chapter in the history of the West, namely, the American story, and wrote in a form that was part journalism and part personal memoir admixed with powers of wild invention, and wilder rhetoric inspired by the bizarre exuberance of a young civilization. No one categorization covers this new form unless it is Hunter Thompson's own word, gonzo. If so, in the 19th century Mark Twain was king of all the gonzo-writers. In the 20th century it was Hunter Thompson, whom I would nominate as the century's greatest comic writer in the English language. On the web
Posted by jk at 10:34 AM
February 20, 2005Mark SteynMark Steyn's webpage is back up (Hat-tip: Samizdata), and his Chicago Sun-Times column is not to be missed (except that it's dated Feb 5, so I have obviously missed it). Will Europe warm up to Bush climate change? Don't ice it, Mark, tell us how you feel! Second Bush Administration
Posted by jk at 2:18 PM
February 19, 2005Poltical QuizHere's a variation on the Libertarian Party's "Shortest Political Quiz."
Posted by AlexC at 9:37 PM
| What do you think? [6]
But jk thinks:
I scored 1.5 on the Moral Order axis and -6 on the Moral Rules axis. They seem to think I am some kind of Republican... Posted by: jk at February 19, 2005 11:49 PM
But AlexC thinks:
1.5! Anarchist! You dirty hippie! Posted by: AlexC at February 20, 2005 5:20 PM
But johngalt thinks:
Dagny and I took the test together. With very little discussion we chose precisely the same answers. The result: "Moral Order" 2.5 "Moral Rules" -6.5 So we're even more individualistic than you two cowboys, but lie somewhere between the two of you on the structured morality scale. It's notable that we're all in the same quadrant, however. Hey Silence, how 'bout you?! Dagny notes that we would have scored higher on the so-called "Moral Order" scale except that the test makes the popular assumption that "moral" is associated with religion and traditional lifestyles. Here's the rest of our scoring data- System: Conservatism Of the 38112 people who took the test: 2% had the same score as you.
But Silence Dogood thinks:
I am a Fordite! 0 Moral Order and -3 Moral Rules. There I go, clinging to the middle again. I am in the same half as the rest of you but quite a bit higher up the socialist scale if I am interpreting this correctly. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 21, 2005 3:11 PM
But jk thinks:
Zero Moral Order -- you should get a T-Shirt made with that... Posted by: jk at February 21, 2005 4:43 PM
But Silence Dogood thinks:
Very good. Yes, I seem to have misplaced my moral compass, I think I left it around here somewhere... Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 22, 2005 2:34 PMSyrians Want Syria OutPublius Pundit sees two ironic threads in the latest news from Lebanon. One, that Jacques Chirac stands accused (j'accuse?) of instigating the rebels. (Oui, oui!). The second is that the Syrian people would like their government’s occupation to end. He links to this New York Post story DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) -- The barrage of criticism aimed at Syria after the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has some Syrians saying it's time to withdraw the 15,000 troops their country has in Lebanon. Ending this occupation seems an achievable goal, and would insert yet another democracy into the region. Freedom on the March
Posted by jk at 9:02 PM
February 18, 2005Great HeadlineIsn’t that an odd headline for a story about a bad headline? Maybe I can get an editing job at Associated Press. The headline reads: Bush Says U.S. Won't Attack Iran This disappointed me -- why would you take something off the table? What about the inaugural address? Is Sharansky out and Brzezinski in? Turns out that was pretty much the opposite of what the President said: WASHINGTON - President Bush said Friday the United States does not intend to attack Iran to crush its suspected nuclear weapons project but added that "you never want a president to say never." He expressed hopes that a European diplomatic initiative would persuade Tehran to abandon any such program. They same folks did the same thing to Secretary Rice. Media and Blogging
Posted by jk at 6:33 PM
U.N. PerfidyLarry Kudlow has fixed his CAPS lock key and has written a nice piece on the UN. He had Claudia Rosett on his show last night. I think it is significant that she wrote about UNscam, not only in the Wall Street Journal, but also in The New Republic. I don't think other non-right-of-center outlets are covering this story. Larry says: Who can deny that the ultimate responsibility lies with Kofi Annan? He knew he was helping Saddam Hussein to survive. He knew the program undermined U.N. sanctions. And he knew the U.N. secretariat was living off the corrupt financial benefits of this misbegotten deal. Freedom on the March
Posted by jk at 6:09 PM
Laser Virtual Keyboard
But AlexC thinks:
It's definately cool tech, but what about the ergonomics of it? Keyboards give way under your finger, a desk will not. I could see it for quick work on your PDA or Blackberry... but give me a keyboard anyday. Especially a Model M...
But jk thinks:
A model M with the caps lock and insert key yanked out -- now yer talkin'! I wouldn't replace my desktop but I would start using my PDA more and sending more text messages from my phone. With flexible LCDs and this, a laptop could fold up very tiny. Posted by: jk at February 18, 2005 6:24 PM
But Silence Dogood thinks:
I say forget the flexible LCD and use this same type of technology for a display. I.e. a miniture projector type display would allow you to use any flat surface such as the tray table on the airline seatback in front of you as your display. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 21, 2005 3:17 PM
But jk thinks:
Yup. Then your cell phone really becomes a laptop. Posted by: jk at February 21, 2005 6:25 PMGovernment Intrusion
A Canton woman who got a state bill last weekend for $2,500 in back cigarette taxes is among the bulk cigarette buyers learning that avoiding taxes -- the state can go back up to four years -- can be expensive in the long run. The state's lost tax dollars were estimated at $1.7 million from just one of 13 online cigarette retailers. In a bold push to catch tax scofflaws, the state Treasury Department has subpoenaed the online retailers in other states to get the names, addresses and purchase records of Michiganders who bought cigarettes from them. In virtually all cases, such sales do not include the cigarette tax that must be paid to the state, regardless of who the seller is or how much is purchased. So far, the sweep has resulted in letters sent to 533 people the state says bought from just the one online seller. If the government of Michigan were really interested in stopping people from smoking (as all good governments claim), they would have sent these people "How to Stop Smoking" packets or something. Instead, they reveal themselves to be what we all knew... just out for the money. And how long till we all get subpeonaed for purchases on eBay or Amazon or anyone of hundreds or thousands of online retailers?
But jk thinks:
It's not really a matter of efficacy. People who think that taxes should be used to control our behavior won't change because it works or it doesn't. That said, it's hard to feel sorry for people who sent Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow to the U.S. Senate. A Win! (I Think)We're all jawing about Social Security and permanent tax cuts, but we should take a moment to celebrate a win. Bush Signs Bill Curbing Class-Action Suits This was an important part of the second term agenda and those of us rooting for the President should be glad for the win. My sole concern is how happy I am about an anti-Federalist measure. Class action suits are national in scope and clearly belong in Federal court. I am not keen on the good folks of Beaverditch, Mississippi shutting down a major pharmaceutical firm. And yet, celebrating the motion of authority from state to federal seems importune.
But johngalt thinks:
How do we file a class-action lawsuit against judgement-friendly state judges who have cost all Americans billions of dollars in inflated liability costs? I wouldn't even care if we didn't collect our damages due, so long as we put those judges out of business. The problem with this band-aid measure is that, eventually, such judges will be found in the federal courts as well. Posted by: johngalt at February 18, 2005 3:45 PM
But jk thinks:
Two advantages: 1) You can't "shop" for sympathetic judges in the Federal court system. The Trial Bar knew what counties tended to have sympathetic judges and juries. 2) You're hoping that the jury pool improves. Again, the jurisdiction shoppers knew how to find extremely poor counties with easier played jurors.
But johngalt thinks:
The Trial Bar also knows which Federal Judicial District has sympathetic judges and juries - the Ninth Circuit. Don't misunderestimate me, I'm all for this change. I just think it's a stopgap measure, analogous to Reagan's '83 Social Security "Reform." Posted by: johngalt at February 21, 2005 2:39 PMFree LebanonPublius Pundit says "I guess moral support really does help." It helped Sakharov and Sharansky when President Reagan called evil by name -- why wouldn't it work in Lebanon. BEIRUT (Reuters) - President Bush called on Syria on Thursday to withdraw its forces from Lebanon as Lebanese opposition leaders vowed to topple the country’s pro-Syrian leadership. Look around the PubliusPundit site. It is dedicated to the advancement of democracy and freedom around the globe -- good stuff! Hat-tip: Instapundit
But Robert Mayer thinks:
Agreed. It's amazing the impact it has, though. From the inaugural address through the SOTU to now, just hearing the words of America's President in support of them has sent shock waves through the people of unfree countries. It's seems like that alone has moved the world 10 steps closer to ending tyranny already. Posted by: Robert Mayer at February 18, 2005 1:58 PMFebruary 17, 2005A National Party No More?It seems like there are at least a few Democrats who learned a lesson from November.
Mr. Casey is the son of former Gov. Bob Casey, a hero to abortion opponents inside and outside the Democratic Party. After trying unsuccessfully to have the party's 1992 platform state that Democrats did not support "abortion on demand," Governor Casey denounced the party for refusing to let him speak at its convention in New York on behalf of other Democrats who shared his views. In contrast, the younger Mr. Casey said that Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the party's senatorial campaign committee, had encouraged him to run as an opponent of abortion rights. "He was very welcoming and very candid about the party's need to speak for a broad section of Americans," Mr. Casey said in an interview. But Mr. Schumer's overture has roiled party loyalists who remain unyielding in their support for abortion rights, exposing a deepening rift in the party. Abortion rights groups that are major financial donors to Democratic campaigns say they may fight Mr. Casey in a primary with a candidate who shares their beliefs. At least one early (like 18 months early) poll has Casey ahead of Santorum, 46% to 41%. Great NYTimes EditorialI have given Thomas Friedman a few thumbs-ups on his NY Times columns, and he deserves another today There is no excuse anymore for Syria's occupation of Lebanon, other than naked imperialism and a desire to siphon off Lebanese resources. If the U.S. government and media really care about democracy in the Arab world, Mr. Hariri's envoy said, then the U.S. has to get behind those trying to rescue the oldest real Arab democracy, Lebanon, from the Syrian grip. Fouad Ajami has a guest editorial in today's Wall Street Journal (Paid site only) There is talk nowadays of spreading liberty to Arab lands, changing the ways of the Arabs, putting an end to regimes that harbor terror. The restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty ought to be one way for the Arabs to break with the culture of dictators and police states, and with the time of the car bombs. Hariri sought for his country a businessman's peace. His way was a break with the politics of charisma and ideology that has wrecked the Arab world; he believed in philanthropy and practical work. His vision may not have been stirring. But there was dignity in it, and a reprieve from the time of darkness. Is it my mood today? The most liberal and the most conservative major editorial pages in the country today are calling for war with Syria as surely as William Randolph Hearst called for war with Spain. As a Sharansky devotee and neo-Wilsonian, I can't run from it, I am just surprised at the idea's velocity. Freedom on the March
Posted by jk at 4:43 PM
Sit Down Before Reading ThisIn policy terms, Kerry probably had a more serious democratization agenda than Bush. But, rhetorically, he never matched Bush's grandeur.I sent this quote to James Taranto at Best of The Web (did I mention the two times that I was in BOTW? 1 2 Oh. I did?) and said "I don't know which part is funnier." Kerry's audacious plan to democratize the Middle East? I somehow missed that one, Peter. And I never, never, never, thought even Beinart would say about a Democrat "rhetorically, he never matched Bush's grandeur." (Nuke-uh-ler...) As usual, Beinart makes other good points in his piece but I wonder if this isn't a fundamental shift in the left. They don't plan to misunderestimate the President. I wonder if we won't see a grudging respect.
But johngalt thinks:
Kerry and the rest of the Dems appear to be relieved that the election season is over and they no longer have to pretend that the President's strategy wasn't working. They're now free to argue, "It's about time he did what I proposed all along!" Posted by: johngalt at February 18, 2005 3:34 PMLord STanley WeepsThe WSJ Ed page is a little disrespectful of my favorite sport, but their middle editorial today contains bitter truth. As newspaper readers, we have a special fondness for headlines that disclose the end of something we didn't know was taking place. Such as, "Drought in Burma Finally Over." Millions of Americans may have a similar reaction today when they read that "NHL Commissioner Cancels Season." You mean they weren't playing hockey? We hadn't noticed. Hardy har har...But the analysis is spot on: The more fundamental problem is that both sides failed to appreciate that in today's competitive sports world they aren't "management" and "labor." They are, or should be, business partners. The National Hockey League is just one of many pastimes bidding for the scarce entertainment dollar. Across a normal season hockey competes with basketball (pro and NCAA), golf, football, professional wrestling, figure skating, and for that matter the circus -- any spectator activity that North Americans pay to watch. I played, as a kid and a grownup, and do love the sport. Missing a season has been disappointing but strangely not devastating.
But sugarchuck thinks:
Cancelling regualr season hockey is a corporal work of mercy; cancelling playoff hockey is a hanging offense. Regular season hockey consists of too many mediocre players spread out over too many teams playing at half speed while playoff hockey shows some of the intensity and speed of pre-pre expansion days. Winning a Stanley Cup is one of sports most difficult challenges and robbing hockey fans of their playoffs is unforgiveable. And it's stupid; really, really stupid.
But jk thinks:
Okay, I'll come out of the closet. I have watched only playoff hockey for the last five years. You're right, this is a sport with some severe problems, making the strike look even more stupid. Posted by: jk at February 18, 2005 4:45 PMThose Bastards!It seems a drug company improved their product to help patients but -- they did it for money! The Wall Street Journal broke this story (I remember reading it and thinking about the disparity between the News and Editorial staffs). But it took the New Yorker's anti-capitalist condescension to do it justice. A friend sent me a link to the Critic At Large column, remarking "I am astonished at the level of bitterness towards drug companies, given that the people I know involved in drug research and development are so committed to improving the lives of patients." Well, yeah, if they gave it away... In short, AstraZeneca, launched an internal project to patent an improvement to its Prilosec so that the firm could continue to profit when the patent expired. They modified its structure to seek improvements. Here's Malcolm Gladwell's take on this nefarious scheme: AstraZeneca then had to prove that the single-isomer version of the drug was better than regular Prilosec. It chose as its target something called erosive esophagitis, a condition in which stomach acid begins to bubble up and harm the lining of the esophagus. In one study, half the patients took Prilosec, and half took Son of Prilosec. After one month, the two drugs were dead even. But after two months, to the delight of the Shark Fin team, the single-isomer version edged ahead—with a ninety-per-cent healing rate versus Prilosec’s eighty-seven per cent. The new drug was called Nexium. A patent was filed, the F.D.A. gave its blessing, and, in March of 2001, Nexium hit the pharmacy shelves priced at a hundred and twenty dollars for a month’s worth of pills. To keep cheaper generics at bay, and persuade patients and doctors to think of Nexium as state of the art, AstraZeneca spent half a billion dollars in marketing and advertising in the year following the launch. It is now one of the half-dozen top-selling drugs in America. Oddly enough, the article eventually comes around to defending some pharmaceutical firms, pointing out that doctors or insurance companies could use the generic Prilosec. Mr. Gladwell may not need Nexium (I could use a hit, reading his column) and feels that isomer selection doesn't rise to his high standards of chemical discovery, but the product was improved. It took scientists and lab techs and time and electricity and lawyers. Shouldn't he be glad it's there if he needs it? He also hits the "cox-2 inhibitors are no better than Advil unless you have stomach ulcers" meme. Once again, these bastards are just trying to sell us $5 aspirin! I dare say if you have thin blood, ulcers, and are in extreme pain, it is might handy to have it around. Yes, they're oversubscribed, yes a less expensive alternative probably works 90% of the time. But what if it's for your spouse and the Insurance company says use the cheap one. What are you going to say? What's your attorney going to say? Pharmaceuticals
Posted by jk at 12:15 PM
February 16, 2005Hail Fiona!I don't mind being a contrarian, but when nobody agrees with me, I have to question my position and maybe even keep my mouth shut. But, now that I have one guy to back me up (and a serious guy at that), I will speak my peace (piece?) I have always been a fan of Carly Fiona of HP. I thought the Compaq merger looked good on paper, and that her refusal to spin off the printer biz augured well for long-term viability of HP. It's not like some folks disagreed -- all of Wall Street disagreed. And the Hayekian in me has to believe that the market is right. I was disappointed when she agreed to step down -- but again, Wall Street loved it. Homan Jenkins, Jr. writes a WSJ Editorial that, mirabile dictu, shares my vision: HP's printers were already going from being appendages of computers to being appendages of digital cameras, with or without a computer involved. The company argues, as a stopgap, that printers help sell computers and vice versa. That's why archrival Dell has recently added printers to its line-up. But, in the long run, HP is positioning itself for the digitization of all media, redrawing the boundaries between computers and consumer electronics. It's already used the imaging lessons gained from printers to roll out a line of plasma TVs. Jenkins wonders if you can build a business around proprietary ink cartridges (a great cash cow, but HP?) and states that her vision will remain for awhile, even though she has gone. UPDATE: WSJ sez Hewlett-Packard Co., a week after directors ousted Chief Executive Carly Fiorina, posted better-than-expected revenue for its fiscal first quarter and offered a relatively strong sales outlook. No wonder she was fired... Economics and Markets
Posted by jk at 7:23 PM
RealignmentIt's just anecdotal, but the summary in the WSJ caught my political eye: "Housing starts rose 4.7% in January to the highest level in nearly 21 years as booming activity in the South offset the effects of soggy, stormy weather elsewhere." WSJ.com - Housing Starts Jump 4.7%, Bucking Forecast for Drop Ummm, isn't that a signal of more than expected growth for the most GOP dominated part of the country? Already, as Joel Kotkin writes in the Weekly Standard, folks are moving out of the Euro-cities to Cities of Aspiration What differentiates these two Americas is not so much politics, but perspective on the future. Cities of aspiration like Reno accommodate job growth and attract young families who hope that tomorrow will be better than yesterday. Demographics definitely favors the red states; the WSJ article makes me wonder if it's not more pronounced than previously thought.
But johngalt thinks:
I wonder, how many of those "housing starts" in the South can be attributed to rebuilding from the most recent hurricane season? Not that I disagree with your basic premise, however. Posted by: johngalt at February 16, 2005 3:24 PMThe Social Security FightPete du Pont (I supported his brief Presidential bid way back when...) nails it in his OpinionJournal piece today. The solidarity seen in opposition to President Bush's Social Security reform is philosophical: Ultimately the argument isn't about investment accounts, or stocks or bonds or "gambling" or "insecurity." It is about socialism versus individualism, about Attlee's social justice and Hillary's common good and Chomsky's economic solidarity. AARP CEO William Novelli is in favor of allowing the government to invest Social Security surplus funds in the stock market, but against allowing individuals to do so--exactly the socialist argument, that government should control the distribution of the nation's wealth. Along the way, he points out that the AFL-CIO, AARP and government employees all use the type of plan W is proposing, even as they fight it. I'll go further and point out that they have a lot to lose. Much of the government control agenda has been repudiated of late; Social Security remains one of the few popular forms of coercion. Any individualization would severely damage the progressives' agenda.
But Silence Dogood thinks:
Yep, Federal employees and federal non-profit employees have been under Social Security since 1984. See http://www.ssa.gov/history/1983amend.html for the whole text of the law. It includes: Covers under Social Security the following groups: (1) Federal employees hired on or after January 1, 1984; (2) current employees of the legislative branch not participating in the Civil Service Retirement System on December 31, 1983; and (3) all Members of Congress, the President and the Vice-President, Federal judges, and other executive-level political appointees of the Federal Government, effective January 1, 1984. Once again this administration is doing a masterful job of linking together unrelated things like Iraq and the 9/11 terrorists. Now it is private accounts and fixing Social Security. Like some kind of cross between hypnosis and a Pavlov's dog experiment Bush is out stumping for his proposal talking about the looming Social Security shortfall in one breath and his private accounts in the other. It will probably work if he continues to say both in every speech. Do a poll about 6 months from now and I bet 50% of the respondents will indicate that having private accounts will fix the monetary shortfall in SS. The subtle sleight of hand and quiet whispers about changes to the benefit calculator and increases to the FICA tax cap thread lazily through your mind, never quite reaching your consciousness - you are feeling sleepy, very sleepy. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 17, 2005 10:10 AM
But jk thinks:
Some clarifications for my pal Silence: My analogy is not a loan to invest, it is a loan to pay off an unrecorded obligation, such as parents loaning a child money for a car or a down payment on a home. Said child might restructure the mortgage and repay. Like financing the transition costs, this seems to increase d e b t on paper, but doesn't change in reality. I think that lower income workers will benefit the most from providing Social Security as a heritable asset. A surviving spouse or child could use the money to finance a new business or buy a home. Perhaps the very act of accumulating wealth would inspire more thrift and a predilection to savings (bringing us full circle to the claim that that's exactly what some opponents would not appreciate...) Yup, the market goes up and down. But the private accounts take advantage of dollar averaging. If you always buy $100 of stock a month, you buy more stock when it's cheaper. In the last decade before retirement, you should move to bonds and fixed securities, so even if you retire in a trough, you are okay. Lastly, I love your point about this being for those not born yet. You're not expecting your grandma to navigate this complexity when she can't program her VCR, you're offering choice to your grandchildren, who will learn to read on a flexible LCD laptop.
But johngalt thinks:
So much to respond to here... Good catch on the change to add federal employees to Social Security. (Although pre-1983 employees are grandfathered out.) Silence has implied that a little bit of socialism is a good thing, while too much or none at all is bad. He's also said he agrees with "the concept of moving toward a privatized plan" but he is "very concerned about the specifics of the changeover from the current plan. Basically will it be managed in an equitable fashion for all involved?" By "equitable" I'll take your meaning as fair, rather than equal, which would in fact make you a "hard core socialist." So how do you determine a "fair" management of a plan that extracts an indeterminate amount of tax from every honest and productive citizen and in turn promises to repay him some arbitrary and ever increasing amount starting at some arbitrary date and continuing for the rest of his indeterminate life regardless of the amount of tax revenues available to make good on that promise? Fair to whom? The promissor? The promissee? How about whoever is trying to be a producer at the time? When is fairness for him taken into account? Most frightening of all Silence's comments is this: "I generally find that trying to identify the underlying philosophical reasons for disagreement not all that helpful in coming to a compromise. I am more interested in how the system gets changed than why." Politicians seek compromise. Rational men seek correct outcomes. If you have no philosophical base then you have no way to judge what is correct. Doing something without regard for the "why" is like a million monkeys banging away on typewriters - a result is achieved but it has no value. Posted by: johngalt at February 18, 2005 3:29 PM
But Silence Dogood thinks:
Yes, equitable as in fair, not equal. You make some very good points however about the difficulty in doing that. They bring to my mind another set of items that is incorrectly becoming linked together, private savings accounts as proposed by President Bush, 401K plans and Social Security. As they would say on Sesame Street, one of these things is not like the others. In many respects SS has more in common with life insurance than private investments. The system is not designed to provide an equal payout to all participants, in fact it, like life insurance, counts on the fact that some participants will live longer, and some shorter lives. By not providing inheritable value it counts on using excess from some participants to pay for others. While not "fair" one only has to look at the difference in premiums on a whole life policy versus a term life policy to get an idea of how much more we would have to pay for that kind of coverage. As to JK's point that even poor people would benefit from and be more empowered by personal savings that assumes that the person has the capability to save at all, something than many at the poverty level do not. For those the current system is better as it removes the risk of running out of money if they should live longer, a risk that increases as the size of the savings diminishes. As for frightening John Galt, I suspect that our utopias are not that different. I am however a hard core pragmatist. By this I mean that although my ideal would be for each of us to pay our own way and all to do that effectively I understand that the reality is that there are those who will not due to things within and those beyond their control. I also understand reality to be that we as a society have made a choice to provide for those folks in some way. I just look at the issue starting from where we currently are, not where I feel we should be. From there I look to what I think is a realistic improvement toward my ideal. I don't think this in any way diminishes my convictions. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 22, 2005 3:13 PM
But jk thinks:
Gotta get the last word before this falls off the page... Silence, I said "I think that lower income workers will benefit the most from providing Social Security as a heritable asset. A surviving spouse or child could use the money to finance a new business or buy a home." Exactly the case that these people are having a tough time saving (25% payroll taxes don't help, but that's another story). The government is, with a private account, forcing them to save. This strikes me as a better alternative than just taking money away from them and it giving it to rich old people. Posted by: jk at February 22, 2005 4:29 PM
But Silence Dogood thinks:
Provided they are "lucky" enough to die before their money runs out. Posted by: Silence Dogood at February 22, 2005 5:44 PM"V-Day"In the words of my wife, who is a genuine genius, this is "not my style" but I find it interesting anyway. And it's timely, being that V-Day is the counter-culture, feminist, alternative to St. Valentine's Day. I am, of course, familiar with The Vagina Monologues and considered it a feminist "feel good" play. Having no interest whatsoever in seeing or reading it, I hadn't realized it's philosophical vacuity. I'll leave it to Christina Hoff Sommers to give us the gory details in Sex, Lies and the Vagina Monologues (warning- adult language) but, as I mentioned in the comments to Competence below, the play dramatizes and glorifies statutory rape. The enobling aspect in this instance is that said rape is a lesbian affair. But worse still, in my (ahem) "humble" opinion, is VM author Eve Ensler's least common denominator treatment of romantic love between men and women, popularly celebrated by Valentine's day. Because there exist men who commit violence against women, she says, no one should celebrate the existence, or value, or joy that results when any man treats a woman with reverence. This attitude is the manifestation of collectivist ideology in the subject of human sexuality - "No woman may be desired so long as any are undesirable!"
But jk thinks:
I've inured to toleration of most lefty foolishness, but have always been extremely bothered by V-Day and the Monologues. It strikes me as the Class Warfare of Love (I may save that for an album title...) these people must discredit what they can't obtain. A friend of this blog once told me that he saw a performance of The Vagina Monologues but that "it wasn't very good -- you could see her lips move..." That joke and your excellent post may help me come to terms with this annual annoyance. February 15, 2005The Laffer CurveIt always works -- and yet everybody is still surprised. Well, not Larry Kudlow. His new blog is now providing follow up commentary for his new show (sniff! The one without Jim Cramer). It is a very effective format: watch the show, read the blog, buy the economist action figures... He blogs about a great segment with Senator Jon Kyl and his effort to extend the Bush tax cuts. Here's the close: Meanwhile dividend and capital gains tax collections are rising at a double-digit pace according to the most recent monthly Treasury statement in the non-withheld personal income category. At lower tax-rates, more investment is generating higher tax collections. Sound familiar? That's right, the scenario conforms to Arthur Laffer's curve. Always works, always surprises... Economics and Markets
Posted by jk at 5:05 PM
For This We Elect Republicans?Sensing that the government was not doing enough to hamper innovation and destroy valuations in the pharmaceutical sector, Congress has sprung into life: Yahoo! News - New Board to Check Drugs After Approval I guess I'll just short Pfizer and learn to live with Multiple Sclerosis -- they got a public to protect!!! Pharmaceuticals
Posted by jk at 4:39 PM
"Allies"I don't do it often, but if I ever blog an NRO piece I feel like I'm trespassing on JK's turf. Forgive me, JK. William F. Buckley, in atypical brevity, lays out the interests of the Six Parties of Asia-Pacific nuclear detente. In a nutshell, America has much to lose from a North Korean nuclear first strike, but our friends in South Korea and Japan, and our "friends" in China and Russia have much more at stake. You see, while the American heartland is some 10,000 miles from the potentially charred and radiating remains of North Korea's industrial and population centers, the other four parties are not. This is encouraging for America's safety, and does much to explain why W can afford to direct his attention toward Iran and Syria while Baby Kim dithers and babbles. But there's another tactic Mr. Bush may be applying, most likely in private, with the Chinese. If not then Jonah Goldberg suggests in today's Corner he give it some thought. Borrowing from a 2003 Charles Krauthammer column: What to do when your hand is so poor? Play the trump. We do have one, but we dare not speak its name: a nuclear Japan. Japan cannot long tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea. Having once lobbed a missile over Japan, North Korea could easily hit any city in Japan with a nuclear-tipped weapon. Japan does not want to live under that threat. The War on Terror is a global campaign and it's time the Chinese started pulling their weight.
But jk thinks:
No, no, well done! I really think that NorthK has "Misunderestimated" President Bush and played right into a trap. Dr. Krauthammer and WFB are right on here. Without China's support, NK would disintegrate even more rapidly. We have brought pressure to bear and it does not have an American face. Next stop: Syria, kids. We've just pulled our ambassador. February 14, 2005I'll Miss the TeamI was suspicious last week. Now it looks official. The CNBC website is promoting Kudlow & Company James Cramer has his own show called Mad Money. I'll still gladly watch Larry, but I will miss Jim's influence as a pro-growth, pro-business Democrat. I'll try his show as well but my hunch is that I'll turn more toward Larry.
Posted by jk at 6:29 PM
Vote With Your FeetBrian Micklethwait at Samizdata catches an interesting ratio. It seems 500 protestors marched on the US Embassy in London, taking exception to America's decision to back out of Kyoto. Yet the same BBC estimated "thousands flocked" to the opening of a new Ikea store. Brian sez: I think this contrast well illustrates the relative pulling power of shopping for bargains compared to political demonstrating, and shows that Western Civilisation will not necessarily be collapsing under the weight of its idiocy any time soon. |