November 7, 2016

Happy Election Eve!

Polls open in Colorado in less than 15 hours and, perhaps more importantly, close in less than 27 hours. "Our long national nightmare is almost over" someone once said, and it feels like it applies again in this event. It's almost over except for the lawsuits and recounts and more lawsuits.

I predicted last week that Trump will win with over 300 electoral votes. I can't prove it of course, and I'm a partisan, but there's my marker.

For those who are convinced the Colorado is in the bank for Hillary due to the lateness of the Comey letter versus the start of early voting, here is some counter factual.

As of this morning, November 7, 645,020 registered Democrats have voted in Colorado.
In the same report, 652,380 registered Republicans have also submitted their ballots.

This is a net 7,360 advantage for Mr. Trump, if one assumes that D's and R's vote in equal proportion for their party nominee. That is consistent with the IBD national poll, but Colorado voters are, as they say, "weird."

The big wildcard is the unaffiliateds. a whopping half a million, 527,706, have voted early.

In every poll I've seen Trump leads Clinton with the uncommitted crowd.

And then there is election day. We shall see.

2016 Colorado Posted by JohnGalt at November 7, 2016 6:19 PM

24 hours later the GOP ballot advantage has grown from about 7k to about 18k.

Critical swing counties Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer are tight - 1960 D advantage. Bellweather Jeffco basically tied. (+505 R)

Posted by: johngalt at November 8, 2016 3:06 PM | What do you think? [1]