April 16, 2016

Gliding into Cleveland with Donald

Donald Trump has stopped whining. For now. Now his position is that he is on a "glide path" to win the GOP presidential nomination outright, with 1,265 delegates, before those delegates convene in Cleveland and start talking about all the reasons not to nominate this man as the standard bearer for the party.

Personally, I think this is the same tactic he used after losing Colorado's caucus - pure spin to energize his base.

According to AP's Stephen Ohlemacher, Trump enters the New York primary with 744 pledged delegates. From here he must:

Win New York with 50-plus percent. Win 22 of New York's 27 congressional districts, again, with 50-plus percent.

Win Connecticut and take 22 of 28 delegates.
Win Delaware's 16 delegates.
Win 32 of 38 Maryland delegates.
Somehow, win 23 of Pennsylvania's 54 delegates.

Win Indiana and most congressional districts, 45 of 57 delegates.
20 of 31 delegates from West Virginia, where delegates are elected by name.
Nebraska? Yeah, right. 36 delegates out of reach.
Add 5 more delegates from proportional states Oregon and Washington.

Now Trump arrives at June 7 with 984 delegates. To reach the nominating majority, Trump must:

Sweep the winner-take-all states New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota. 107 delegates total; win 5 of New Mexico's 24 proportional delegates; and win a big majority of California - 39 of 53 congressional districts AND the statewide contest, totaling 130 delegates.

984 plus 112 plus 130 equals ... 1,226.

Except that, according to the Green Papers political blog, Trump has 757 "hard" delegates, not 744 - a difference of 13 delegates. (Presumably the statewide delegates from Missouri, still undergoing a recount.)

1,226 plus 13 equals 1,239. Trump is the nominee with two delegates to spare. If you believe he can win South Dakota and Montana (and all the other rosy scenarios in a perfect combover storm.)

Or, he could have tried harder in Colorado.

Colorado GOP 2016 Primary Posted by JohnGalt at April 16, 2016 10:42 AM
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