April 18, 2014

Everybody thinks he's Nate Silver

Michael Medved has a guest editorial in the WSJ today. He claims -- music to ThreeSourcers -- that "The War on Women" was not successful in 2012

A closer look at the numbers reveals that Mr. Obama's success with the ladies actually stemmed from his well-known appeal to minority voters. In 2012, 72% of all women voters identified themselves as "white." This subset preferred Mitt Romney by a crushing 14-point advantage, 56% to 42%. Though Democrats ratcheted up the women's rhetoric in the run-up to Election Day, the party did poorly among the white women it sought to influence: The Republican advantage in this crucial segment of the electorate doubled to 14 points in 2012 from seven points in 2008. In the race against Mr. Romney, Obama carried the overall female vote--and with it the election--based solely on his success with the 28% of women voters who identified as nonwhite. He carried 76% of Latina women and a startling 96% of black women.

I'm not going to ask the lovely bride to bring me my slippers so we can pop the champagne corks just yet. I think Medved is abusing statistics. The differential among female voters is interesting but not conclusive. You don't have to be "Pajama Boy" to be repelled by a perception of "troglodytery;" I wince at #WaronWomen because I see its being effective among my Facebook friends -- and I could even see its working on me were I not both connected and deeply committed to other issues.

I don't wince at the stupid, over the top attack ads: just the ones that look like they'd work. But to measure efficacy only by the female vote seems short-sided.

2014 Midterm Election Posted by John Kranz at April 18, 2014 10:41 AM
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