November 5, 2012

Final Prediction

Blogger gotta stick neck out. It's in a contract somewhere. Sacred pundit covenant and all.

James Pethokoukis got me going -- dude is an optimist!

But I am too. I take Jimi P's and give Minnesota and Iowa to the President. That's still 285 -243, and Gov. Romney can afford to lose one more state, provided it isn't one that's round on the ends and high in the middle.

JK's:

2012 Election Posted by John Kranz at November 5, 2012 7:16 PM

I am sooo hoping you're spot on. Email from Karl Rove just came, he's also got Romney at 285. I respect him and Barone as real pros. Talk to you all tomorrow...

Posted by: Ellis Wyatt at November 5, 2012 7:37 PM

I'll take it!

Posted by: AlexC at November 5, 2012 7:46 PM

I've read about the problem with absentee ballot chaos in Ohio and really hope it isn't close there. A recount would be the opening to fraud that could give the president's men the chance they need.

I've read about the Romney campaign internal polls that show him up by 3 in NH, up by 1 in OH, and even in WI and PA. (Pennsylvania - the OTHER Ohio.)

The link I choose to leave you with though, since it is so different, so "touchy feely" is Our Peggy.

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we're not really noticing because we're too busy looking at data on paper instead of what's in front of us? Maybe that's the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

Sleep well fellows, for the morrow comes.

Posted by: johngalt at November 5, 2012 7:50 PM

AlexC gets 278 without Ohio. Not implausible...

Posted by: jk at November 5, 2012 8:10 PM

278? 285?

If 285 is your over/under, put me down for a round of beers on Over. And I don't plan on losing this.

Some optimism for you over at Ace: http://minx.cc/?post=334683

Posted by: Keith Arnold at November 6, 2012 12:35 AM

I'll buy anybody a drink anywhere if it is over 285!

Posted by: jk at November 6, 2012 2:47 PM

I'll buy anybody a drink if it is over 269!!

Posted by: johngalt at November 6, 2012 4:34 PM

Heh -- then again, at 269, it gets thrown to the House, where we look pretty good. We could end up with Romney-Biden, in which case we'd all be drinking...

Posted by: jk at November 6, 2012 5:20 PM

Yeah, if it's 269 Biden buys the drinks. If it's less, free drinks for everyone - on the White House!

Posted by: johngalt at November 6, 2012 5:25 PM | What do you think? [9]