November 5, 2012

Oh, is there an election tomorrow?

Listening to political hacks argue about polling data seemed foolish yesterday. We are hours away and I am content to bring on the one poll that counts. I was a bit disheartened to see Dr. Larry Sabato predict the President's reelection, but I carry on.

I made one last "Libertario Delenda Est" to a wavering libertarian musician buddy. He still is undecided between the evil Governor Romney and four more years. I thought about offering him jg's beer, but flipped a coin and instead shared Chris Demuth's A Referendum on ObamaCare and Liberty. Tuesday's choice on health care is pretty much irrevocable.

America is a large, wealthy, dynamic and heterogeneous nation. It is also the only major country that continues to maintain a health-care system with substantial elements of competitive supply, pricing freedom, patient choice, and diversity in approaching complex and uncertain medical problems.

Moving from a world with one such system to a world with none--a world with no major market where new medical drugs and devices can be priced to return large investments in research and development, for example--will fundamentally change the prospects for future medical progress.

The most important result of ObamaCare will go beyond health care, though, to the dynamics of American politics. Today, the details of federal government policy are important primarily to those in heavily regulated sectors such as finance, energy and communications; to professionals such as lawyers and tax accountants; and to those who for one reason or another are dependent on public assistance. Between elections, most members of the American middle class can go about their lives with little distraction from Washington.
Every middle-class American of every age and circumstance will be constantly in the government's sights. The tendency--already evident at the state level--will be to require generous, subsidized coverage of routine health and "wellness" services involving lifestyle, cosmetics, amenity and child development; of "preventive medicine" such as weight-reduction programs; and of "alternative medicine" such as massage and herbal therapies. At the same time (as already evident under Medicare) the treatment of infrequent but costly catastrophic diseases and conditions will be limited in the name of cost control, and the case-by-case discretion of doctors and other providers will be closely monitored and restricted.

That, and brother jg's beer...

2012 Election Posted by John Kranz at November 5, 2012 10:39 AM

Sabato Rabbito. You can't believe anything he says - his predictions come from a Crystal Ball! We clearly need a dose of Michael Barone who predicts, based on fundamentals, Romney in a landslide. (That's my word. Barone's is "handily.")

Posted by: johngalt at November 5, 2012 1:40 PM

I was quite surprised by Barone's predictions. I have successfully predicted every presidential election since 1980 and I HAVE NO IDEA what's going to happen. I am quite disconcerted right this minute. "Too close to call" is not in my usual vocabulary, but...

Posted by: Ellis Wyatt at November 5, 2012 2:25 PM

I see that my work here is not yet done!

It's commonly known that the 2008 election had 8% more Democrat turnout than Republican. A Rasmussen poll predicted this. In 2010 Rasmussen predicted the Dems would still have an advantage, but only 3 points. In actuality it was +0 or "even." In 2012 Rasmussen predicts, with an even larger sample size, GOP +6.

Add to this that every poll shows unaffiliateds breaking for Romney by double digits and the only way Obama can win is through election fraud that would make Hugo Chavez jealous. It's possible though - the media and their polls are already singing from the [Dem] party songbook.

Posted by: johngalt at November 5, 2012 2:35 PM

As for the article that is the subject of this post, it makes a point that in retrospect has been mostly absent from the campaign:

On Tuesday, Americans will go to the polls to choose whether or not to nationalize their health-care system.

And the fine article is available free in its entireity. It seems that WSJ wants to make sure as many voters as possible read it.

Posted by: johngalt at November 5, 2012 3:21 PM

The Barone prediction is based on Romney winning by a tiny sliver in a lot of places. The winner-take-all Electoral College magnifies hair-breadth popular vote victories.

Posted by: Boulder Refugee at November 5, 2012 3:58 PM

True, which makes elections more strategic than in a pure popular vote. Some call this "disenfrancisement" (of east coast Republicans or southern or mountain-west Democrats.) I call it laboratories of Democracy.

If those hair-breadth differences fall for Obama then he could win the electoral college with a minority of the popular vote total.

Posted by: johngalt at November 5, 2012 5:08 PM | What do you think? [6]