March 20, 2010

ObamaCare Won't Cost Dems Their Jobs

That's the thesis of Dana Milbank in tomorrow's Washington Post column.

Beyond that, it's doubtful that opposition to the measure will ever again be as high as it is now. Fox News polling found that 45 percent of voters would favor repeal, while 47 percent say leave the reforms alone or add to them. With the big insurance subsidies years away, the initial changes stemming from the legislation would be relatively modest -- and that should come as a surprise to an American public told by Republican foes of the legislation to expect a socialist takeover of the United States.

(...)

There will certainly be ads this fall saying Republican Congressman X voted against tax breaks for small business and voted to deny Junior his life-saving treatments. These modest changes to the health system probably wouldn't be widespread and noticeable enough to limit Democratic losses at a time of 10 percent unemployment. But, at the very least, voters would see nothing to justify the Republicans' apocalyptic predictions.

Yet repeal still holds appeal, even to the likes of Mitt Romney, who as governor of Massachusetts created what the New Republic's Jonathan Chait calls "the closest thing to Obamacare in the United States." A poll by the Boston Globe and Harvard last fall found that only one in 10 Massachusetts residents favors a repeal of that program.

Health Care Posted by JohnGalt at March 20, 2010 12:58 PM

Yup, me and Dana -- two peas in a pod.

I think it will add to troubles in an already tough year, but our [who's this "we" kimosabe?] belief that this is a coupon for 100 seats is potentially misguided. I will give them my favorite joke, mutatis mutandis: "Hey guys, I hear we're going to get to run against the Republicans again this year."

Not guided by my cautious tactical pragmatism and cool head, many TEA partiers will go to third parties or stay home because the People's Front of Judea candidate isn't pure enough.

A quote of my father's wafts back as well: "Great is the power of incumbency." The man was ahead of his time.

Posted by: jk at March 21, 2010 10:49 AM

"Mutatis mutandis" - I always appreciate Latin. And my compliments to your father, jk... though I trust Tom Daschle was relying on that one. If you wake up enough voters, incumbency's power may be great, but not absolute. I am hoping that enough people have been awakened, and there are polls indicating that may be the case. I'm also hoping that as some Democrats cast their votes today, they'll be remembering a little Latin of their own: "Ave, Imperator! Morituri te salutant!"

I have, hoping against hope, called my Congressman's office, politely expressed my position, and was told that Adam Schiff is firmly committed to voting in favor of passing health care "reform" in every vote that takes place today. I expressed my sincere disappointment and thanked the staffer.

I will vote for whoever runs against Schiff, even if I have to run against the sumbich myself.

Posted by: Keith Arnold at March 21, 2010 12:08 PM

Milbank's analysis and optimism not withstanding, the math is not on the side of Republicans. There is no conceivable scenario in which the Republicans pick up a veto-proof majority in both houses - not enough net-seats in play even if they ran the table. Any alternations will be quickly vetoed and sustained even by a Democrat minority, who will suddenly rail against the tyranny of a simple majority. This leaves any hope for meaningful reform to 2014, and The Refugee is not sure the fire can be kept burning that long.

Posted by: Boulder Refugee at March 22, 2010 3:07 PM

BR: you've taken away my hope for optimism. That leaves only secession, armed resistance, or living with it.

Posted by: Keith Arnold at March 22, 2010 4:25 PM

I'm not anticipating a veto-proof majority soon (or ever, that is a pretty rare incident), I want a house majority in 2010 -- that stops it from getting worse. Picking up either the Senate or WH in 2012. That would be the start of making things better.

Posted by: jk at March 22, 2010 5:37 PM

Sorry to be a splash of cold water, KA. My hope lies in the new post above about fighting this thing state-to-state. We may also need to adopt the Left's strategy of challenging everything in the courts. Nevertheless, any serious modifications are a long shot. Government cheese is more addictive than crack.

Posted by: Boulder Refugee at March 23, 2010 12:07 PM | What do you think? [6]