June 18, 2009

But I'm Not Done Yet...

A post by JK two days ago regarding the current events in Iran spawned a spirited debate and some excellent comments. The events are so important, however, that The Refugee decided to enter this post to bring the central issue to the fore. Bottom line, an internal Iranian regime change would be the most transformative global event since the fall of the Berlin wall. Without a bellicose Iran and its funding, the Syrian, Hezbollah, Hamas and maybe even al-Qaida dominos would fall. This is a seminal event, and as others have pointed out, Obama is voting "Present." This is neither hope, nor change nor leadership.

Blog Brother TG, rightly, critisized The Refugee's supporting data as anecdotal (positions from two Iranian ex-pats). This is true, though in defense The Refugee will take the opinions of two Iranians whose families still live there over a country full of pundits who apply analysis-by-projection to the situation. The core argument is whether or not the Iranian people want regime change or are satisified with the current theocracy.

Writing in today's WSJ, Afshin Ellian, another Iranian expat and European professor, has this to say:

This week's protests prove that the people of Iran -- the children of the revolution -- will accept the rule of the mullahs no more. The regime is no longer able to exercise sovereignty over the Iranian people without resorting to extreme violence.

Iran is now at a crossroads. Either the will of the people will be accepted and a peaceful transition to democracy will take place, or the regime will respond to these massive demonstrations by unleashing a bloodbath.

The essential question: Can a regime, despised by a huge majority of the population, transform itself into a democracy that recognizes the rule of law? Has such a transition ever taken place without bloodshed?

The Refugee will assert that the majority of Iranians do want a change and that this is an opportunity to save millions of lives and billions of dollars. The alternative is almost inevitable war with a nuclear Iran. Barack Obama needs to seize this opportunity. He has yet to make the transition from Candidate Obama to President Obama. Now is the time.

Iran Posted by Boulder Refugee at June 18, 2009 12:19 PM

"Now is the time." And I doubt his ability to take advantage of this golden opportunity. He was so counting on the opportunity to sit down and talk with Ahmedinejad without preconditions, too.

It just won't be the same if A-jad is no longer a head of state when that conversation takes place.

Why do I have this notion that when it happens, A-jad will be living the good life in Bermuda, sipping mojitos on our dime?

Posted by: Keith at June 18, 2009 1:09 PM

Keith: I would take that trade!

Posted by: Boulder Refugee at June 18, 2009 2:18 PM

As would I - but I'm of a mind to think the Prezznit wants A-jad in power because he promised the world he'd sit down with A-jad. This "robust debate" going on in Iran just muddies up his appointment caldendar.

Posted by: Keith at June 18, 2009 4:17 PM

Worse than that, Keith. An A-jad status quo gives Obama plausible deniability when no progress is made. "Don't blame me - everyone knows the guy's a nut." The current developments require that Obama actually do something and the very real possiblity of mucking it up without even George W. Bush to blame.

Posted by: Boulder Refugee at June 19, 2009 6:35 PM

@BR-

I would be careful with predicting regime change.

Remember, Mousavi's proposed "reforms" are not revolutionary; he is part of the old guard. He (and most of the people who voted for him) were not attempting a socio-political revolution on par with that in Berlin 1989. Rather, he wanted to push change from within the existing system.

So yes, should we be standing behind Iranian anger with political fraud and oppressive tactics?

YES - it is not even a question.

But - and this is a large but - please do not expect a new '89. I fear that you will only be disappointed with unrealistically high expectations.

P.S. If the regime turns stupid and tries to shut down all of this, matters may change. As it stands now though, I remain reluctant to proclaim this a revolution at all.

Posted by: T. Greer at June 19, 2009 11:37 PM

TG: Not predicting regime change, and would not categorize Mousavi as regime change. That would require the end of the Revolutary Council, in my book. I am hoping for such a change, regardless of the odds. No one forcast the end of the USSR until it happened.

Based on all I've been reading, many, if not a majority (no one knows for sure) of Iranians want a significant change. I would even settle for benign theocracy and suspect most Iranians would as well.

Posted by: Boulder Refugee at June 20, 2009 12:17 AM | What do you think? [6]