Can we vote now?

Happy election eve, everyone.

I am certainly not predicting a McCain victory on Tuesday. But neither should the press corps be predicting an Obama victory on Tuesday.

(And neither should JK.)

The quote is from Mullings.com's Rich Galen. Where does he see a flaw in the inevitibility?

According to McInturff, it is important to note that even in the states Obama is leading he is under 50%. So is McCain, but the case we are making is this thing has not yet been decided.

In Pennsylvania - which I have been saying is going to be 21 electoral votes for McCain - the race is tightening daily. After being stuck at a double-digit lead for Obama for the past two weeks, a newspaper poll released yesterday showed the lead down to seven for Obama.

Remember that Hillary beat Obama by about 10 percentage points in the primary there, despite being outspent 3-1. Pennsylvanians - at least rural Pennsylvanians - were the subject of Obama's highly touted closed-press fundraising remarks in San Francisco.

(...)

I don't believe I'm breaching a confidence by relaying this from McInturff's e-mail:

In our internal numbers, there has been positive movement on voters seeing Obama as the "risky choice" and as McCain as the candidate who "will keep taxes low." As a pollster, this means there is a shift on the attributes that helps provide an understanding of what is causing the ballot to tighten.

The thinking is, of course, that the eleventh hour revelations - spread the wealth, Khalidi tape, bankrupt coal industry, electric rates "necessarily skyrocket" - are flipping the soft Obama votes to McCain. This is what I call the "America pulls its head out of its ass" effect. Or, probably more accurately, a decent percentage of voters wait until election day, when all the information is on the table, before making their choice.

I won't make a prediction. I'm just keeping my glass half-full.

Presidential Race 2008 Posted by JohnGalt at November 4, 2008 12:01 AM