September 30, 2008
Defending James Glassman
It has to be done.
One of my favorite writers (and Buffy-sire) Jonathan V. Last has a little fun this week on the Galley Slaves blog. In About That Financial Crisis, he provides thumbnail photos of two books: "Why the Housing Boom Will Not Go Bust" and everybody's favorite whipping boy "Dow 36,000."
Fair enough and funny. If your innards don't squirm a little bit looking at the jacket thumbnails, you're not paying attention.
But it occurs to me that Gloom-and-Doom books outsell Bullish books by a healthy margin. Dow 36,000 is Glassman's personal albatross (Do you get wafers with that, Mister Coleridge?) It's been the butt of many a joke. And, when your bold prediction fails spectacularly, you deserve it. Back to the "But" part, I never see the Bears on CNBC when the DJIA crests new highs. "Mister Schilling, in your best-seller, 'We're All Totally F$%^ed Now.' you promised bank failures in 2006 -- what do you have to say for yourself, four eyes?"
We have a bias toward pessimism and cynicism -- which are a lot easier to predict. Long term, I have to throw my lot in with Kudlow. Free market capitalism will prevail even against the shackles we encumber it with. Human spirit and creativity will prevail. I'd be a buyer right now.
If I had any money.
Or if I could get a loan.