April 30, 2008
A non-Classic Recession
No, I am not saying that the US economy is not and will not be in recession.
Like the old schoolmarm who still tries to teach the difference between who and whom and cautions her students to not, I mean not to split infinitives, I am standing up for a recession as a specific, measureable, binary thing. My main nemesis is the Associated Press wire service:
Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in 1st quarter of 2008
So, like New Coke® and Coke Classic®, we have a classic recession, where the economy suffers two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and a "New" recession where a Republican is in the White House and growth is sub par. Got it.
UPDATE: Professor Mankiw notes that the probability of a recession in 2008 has fallen to 25 percent in the latest trade at intrade.Economics and Markets Posted by John Kranz at April 30, 2008 9:49 AM