March 15, 2008

Words Matter

Blogging sucks. Every time I procrastinate in writing something, I always find it more thought out and better written (or is that “written better?”).

BeldarBlog says "Lies about "the George W. Bush Recession™ of 2008" are well underway." I link not to promote a rosy economic scenario, but to highlight something that disturbs me. Take it away, Beldar:

The word "recession" has a very, very specific meaning in classical economics. In fact, this same article admits that (emphasis mine), just before it starts to lie: "Although the classic definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic product ...." If these people were being candid, they would complete this sentence by saying, "... but in this article we're using that same word, 'recession,' to mean something different, something poorly defined, something vague, and something ominous, all because it suits our purposes better and we don't mind being liars."

I read the same story in the Wall Street Journal and had the same thought. Even on Kudlow and Company, where I expect a little better, they are pretty cavalier about the technical and the casual use of the R word.

The thesis of the WSJ article is that "a majority of economists" in a forecasting survey say that the US is already in recession. Aggregate Economic predictions, huh. Insert joke here.

UPDATE: Steve Horwitz at the Austrian Economics Blog asks if we'd expect the following headlines:

"Three-quarters think Swayze X-ray shows pancreatic cancer"

"Three-quarters think the barometric pressure is falling"


Good stuff (HT: Everyday Economist)

Media and Blogging Posted by jk at March 15, 2008 11:09 AM

There you have it - "The economic analysis is settled." (At least until January 20th, when it MIGHT be "re-evaluated.")

Posted by: johngalt at March 15, 2008 2:55 PM

This reminds me of Warren Buffett's comments from a few weeks back where he argued that we were in a recession even if the technical definition wasn't satisfied. If I was the reporter on the Buffett story, the headline would have read:

'Buffett: If we redefine recession, we are currently in a recession.'

Posted by: HB at March 16, 2008 2:54 PM

Heh. And if we redefine "hurricane" to mean four inches of spring snow, Colorado is having its first hurricane.

Posted by: jk at March 17, 2008 10:27 AM | What do you think? [3]