June 22, 2007

Rudy Can't Predict the Future

The ability to predict the future is virtually impossible. We all like to try and we love to think that it is possible, but in reality we are mostly kidding ourselves. The media is especially good at predicting events -- after they happen, of course. Why didn't we see 9/11 coming? Why were the red flags of the Virginia Tech gunman ignored? Quite frankly, it boils down to our complete and utter inability to predict.

Nevertheless, Rick Moran believes that Rudy's inability to predict the future may hurt him in the election:

Herein lies the trap for Giuliani as he seeks to use his well-deserved reputation for leadership gained on 9/11 as a springboard to the presidency. Questions that were arguably glossed over by the 9/11 Commission, about the communications snafus that led to so many firefighters losing their lives, as well as a perceived lack of compassion for workers cleaning up Ground Zero will dog his campaign and actually be used against him by his opponents.

I have heard the discussion of the communication problems before. But perhaps it is my recognition of the fact that we can predict neither the events nor the ability of our infrastructure to hold up in an unlikely, yet catastrophic event that allows me to gloss over these "snafus."

So called "snafus" are not discovered when firefighters are waiting for a call, but rather when they are called into action. The inability to properly handle a catastrophic event properly given one's infrastructure cannot be discovered without a catastrophe.

Full Disclosure: Unlike jk, I am not in the Rudy camp.

2008 Race Posted by Harrison Bergeron at June 22, 2007 9:32 AM

Give him time to work his baldheaded magic on you, hb.

Politicians and company leaders are warned about something drastic two or three times a day. I'd guess the number for the Mayor of NYC is more like 100.

Part of their job is to filter out the noise and choose where to allocate scarce resources. The trick of producing an email or report that predicted 9/11 as a "smoking gun" is specious.

Posted by: jk at June 22, 2007 10:44 AM

War and terrorist attacks are unpredictable, and as much as I dislike Giuliani for his fascist views of freedom versus government, he and his staff did the best they could, and extremely well.

"No one could anticipate." That still includes airplanes flying into the WTC, which the CIA had said was a possibility, but no one on our side seriously envisioned that would ever happen.

Posted by: Perry Eidelbus at June 22, 2007 2:49 PM | What do you think? [2]