The Wisdom of "Football Jesus"

I have mentioned, a few times (a couple times too many?), my fascination with an aside in James Surowecki’s "The Wisdom of Crowds." Surowecki engineers one of the Broncos' famous super bowl losses as a victory with a more aggressive offense, specifically going for a fourth down conversion. Surowecki claims that traditional football play calling is far more conservative than statistics would recommend: "You never take points off the board," "You always punt in your own zone..." all those little bits of wisdom my friend calls "Football Jesus."

I brought this up recently, suggesting that Cincinnati might have gone for a two point conversion, instead of the PAT they missed against the Broncos. Football Jesus says you only go for two to tie the score. I beat this horse for a week or so in an email thread.

Today, I have seen the light and will abandon Mr. Surowecki's counsel and put my faith in gridiron-you-know-who.

I don't know what demon Coach Schottenheimer was channeling when he went for it on 4th and 11. He gave the momentum the Chargers were building away and gave the Pats a free field goal. "They're going to lose by three," thought me -- one of my few good football predictions.

For the last decade, my beloved Broncos have been the beneficiaries for Coach Schottenheimer's miscues. Today, I was pulling for his Chargers and felt the pain of my old Cleveland friend, if only for an afternoon. He could have overcome the bad 4th down choice, but for some miserable clock management in the final minutes. He gave one timeout away on a "hail mary" challenge that had no factual support, then used one of his remaining timeouts 16 seconds before the 2:00 warning, saving ten seconds but allowing them to run off a full 40 after the 2:00 time out. Another timeout or 30 more seconds would have made a huge difference.

Hate to "kick a dolly when he's down" but Coach Schottenheimer, I nominate you for the coveted ThreeSources You Suck award for 2007.

UPDATE: I thought I was too harsh; Dean Barnett is tougher, citing my examples plus the lack of discipline. Barnett is a Pats fan who recognizes that San Diego put a far more talented team on the field yesterday.

UPDATE II: My Cleveland buddy writes:

As a fan,who Marty has destroyed, I was happy to see him destroy the hopes and dreams of other fans throughout the league. KC, Cleveland, SD any others he can go to? Maybe Denver?

Posted by John Kranz at January 14, 2007 9:18 PM