And I'm The Optimist

Yes, there's plenty of time. No it is not a fait accompli that the GOP will lose control in November. Yes, gerrymandering will protect the GOP. Yes the Democrats would have to run the table to grab either house.

With these disclaimers aside, I see a couple of things that worry me in the latest Wall Street Journal / ABC poll.

Republicans Sag in New Poll

"There's almost nothing that the public is satisfied with," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. "What they're telling you is, they want change on every front."

That is a worrisome sign for Republicans, who are seeking to defend their House and Senate majorities with little more than six months remaining before Election Day. Continuing a trend that has persisted for a year, Democrats lead -- beyond the poll's 3.1 percentage point margin of error -- in public preference for which party should control Congress. The survey of 1,005 adults was conducted April 21-24.

And in the run-up to November, Democrats also enjoy an edge in intensity; by 11 percentage points, their partisans are more likely to express high interest in the midterm campaigns. The biggest bright spot for Republicans is that Democrats have made no progress improving their national image, an indication that they aren't yet positioned to take advantage of their opportunity for far-reaching November gains.

Twenty-two percent -- ouch (what would I have told a pollster?) That is worrisome, but the larger issue is the issue of intensity. I came across this article on Instapundit. Here's the whole post:

REPUBLICANS ARE SAGGING IN THE POLLS: Maybe, in part, it's because Harry Reid is doing better than Bill Frist in fighting pork?

Here's the kind of response that's getting from former GOP supporters: "Okay, real conservatives, Republicans, and libertarians, stay home. Just...stay home in 2006. Or - what the hell - vote for a Democrat. We have to wake up the Stupid Party, before it completely merges itself into the Republicrat Statist Party."

I think that a GOP disaster is now officially looming.

Politics is not Glenn's thing but he has a good pulse on the center-right, little-l libertarian, and they are pissed. Every day he has Sen. Trent Lott's railroad to nowhere or some such indefensible porkfest by a Republican.

The one thing they said about 1994 that sticks in my head is "nobody saw it coming. If somebody says they did, they're lying." I bet Jim Wright and George Mitchell were pretty sanguine in April '94. The thing that gives me hope is Tony Snow -- he might actually get some of the Administration's accomplishments across.

Politics Posted by jk at April 27, 2006 12:22 PM