December 31, 2005
E-Books
My wife and I were early adopters of eBook technology. I had a Gemini Rocket (Five stars) a Franklin something-or-other (1.5 stars) and I now read books on my Palm. The two great things about eBooks are being able to carry a dozen large books on a small device and incredible ease of reading in any light situation.
I can only read paper in very good light but I can read the eBook on a plane or in dim light.
Sony is unveiling a new piece4 of hardware at the CES show next week. Business Week reports:
Back in 2000, a bunch of e-book readers hit the market, only to tank because the technology didn't adequately duplicate the book reading experience. Now, with everyone from Google (NasdaqNM:GOOG - News) to Microsoft (NasdaqNM:MSFT - News) to HarperCollins (NYSE:NWS - News) digitizing books, plus the arrival of slick new display technology, Sony figures the time is right for a handheld e-reader in the U.S.But while Sony's iPod-like strategy -- seamlessly wedding content to hardware -- has promise, reading books on a digital device still feels nothing like the real thing to most consumers. As such, it will be an uphill battle building a sizable market for e-books, which accounted for an estimated 0.2% of the 944 million books U.S. publishers sold worldwide in 2004. "No one has created a device compelling enough to have mass appeal," says Nick Bogaty, executive director of the International Digital Publishing Forum, an industry group.
That's the conventional wisdom. The right hardware has just not appeared yet. Bulltwinkies.
The holdup for adoption of this technology is business failure, not any technical hurdle. We loved our eBooks but an eBook costs the same as a Hardcover and could not be shared with another device. I can lend a book out when I'm done, give it away, sell it, donate it to a thrift store, but I have to lend my hardware out to share an eBook. I get zero credit for the printing, inventory and shipping I saved the publisher, the selection is limited. After time, it seems not to be worth it. The exception is public domain material which is available free or cheap (Riza bought Dickens's "Bleak House" for my Palm for two dollars and change).
I wish Sony the best. I really believe in this technology and hope their device is cool. But the deciding factor will be its arrangement with publishers even more than the user experience.
It appears that publishers' fears of lost profits the old fashioned way are hindering their progress toward a superior delivery system. But if this is true, won't the "Schumpeterian gales" eventually blow the old school boys away?
Posted by: johngalt at December 31, 2005 5:18 PMSchumpeter is exactly what it's about and Google may indeed be the gale.
There is another issue if I may put on my tinfoil hat and wait for the black helicopters to pass overhead. Publishers can now manipulate sales figures very easily (weaselly) by shipping product that is not really purchased in the classical sense. Ship two million copies of Senator Reid's "Searchlight Cowardice" and you can perch the book on the bestseller lists. When the unsold copies are returned or remaindered, nobody puts an asterisk by the title.
I fear publishers are as afraid of real sales numbers as a new business plan. These folks are few and solidly entrenched; it will take a Google or one of their members straying from the fold (TimeWarner?) but I do believe Schumpeter will prevail.
In the meantime, they can claim that the right hardware has not been invented yet. I don't believe it. But I will buy one of the new Sonys. I can put it on the shelf by my Betamax and AIT tape drive...
Posted by: jk at January 1, 2006 12:03 PM | What do you think? [2]