November 30, 2005
Long Tail in TV
Instapundit links to a New York Magazine article that captures my belief that the "Long Tail" is coming to TV. Adam Sternbergh takes the disparate occurrences of iPod video with iTunes TV shows, the Serenity movie, and fan reaction to a hiatus in FOX's "Prison Break."
I wish he'd use the term "Long Tail" because I think that is what is really significant here but he captures my ideas and predictably writes them more clearly and cleanly than I could.
He joins me as well is dreaming of a DVD only second season of Firefly. Sternbergh suggests that a million Firefly fans are out there and willing to pay $39.95 for a season (If you're listening, Joss, I'm in for $50).
Alas, Firefly, Season 2 is not likely. But the broader point of a huge shift in programming and marketing holds:
What do we know about TV? Here’s the basic model: Networks air particular shows at particular times on particular nights; say, Commander in Chief on ABC, every Tuesday at nine. These shows are available to viewers for free, subsidized by intrusive blocks of ads—a leftover from the days when TV was magically plucked from the air by your rooftop antennae, like radio with pictures. A TV show’s ratings determines both its sustainability (on the network schedule) and its profitability (in terms of how much its advertisers can be charged). These ratings are calculated by following the habits of a small number of representative viewers, tracked by the Nielsen company, whose preferences are then extrapolated for the entire audience. The prime economic directive of TV, therefore, has always been, TV doesn’t sell shows to viewers: It sells viewers to advertisers.
Why not "subscribe" to a show or network, and get all of its programming? Or a new unit, where I subscribe t6o get all of Joss Whedon's stuff or Tim Minear's, or a consortium of all?
It's coming and I think it will offer more and better choice. If I add the money I spend on Satellite (~$600/year) to my DVD purchases ($600 worth of Buffy/Angel/Firefly, tons more on British Comedy), I have a large amount of entertainment dollars I could throw at getting what I want.
It's a cool idea. I might subscribe to some shows this way... but it would need to be DRM'd out the ying-yang. Think of the piracy.
Posted by: AlexC at November 30, 2005 3:17 PMYeah, Tivo is already getting flak about digital watermarks. Why do none of the suits get that if the price is right piracy will all but disappear? Why copy a VHS tape or DVD movie if you can buy it for less than $20? But JK is right, there is a change coming. Other than a sporting event I seriously cannot remember the last time I watched live TV. (Disclosure: I am a Tivo fanatic, I own three - so you can record multiple shows simultaneously and so I have one in the basement workout room; and a stockholder in the company) I actually no longer have any idea what time or channel the shows I watch come on. This also alleviates the ridiculous network practice of pitting popular shows directly against one another in the same time block. I love "Veronica Mars" but want to watch "Lost" too. (Hey, JK, Joss Whedon is a huge Veronica Mars fan) As I watch this way however, I rarely see commercials but just fast forward through. Advertising is going to have to become targeted or more product placement based, or a subscription style revenue system will have to come about. One big loser already showing up is theaters, the AMC folks are already feeling the pinch of earlier DVD releases and the popularity of home theater systems. But in general, the ability of movies to go direct to DVD has opened up more choices (lots of kids movies have never seen the inside of a theater) and I see no reason why the same economic model could not be used for TV programs.
Posted by: Silence Dogood at November 30, 2005 3:52 PM | What do you think? [2]