August 25, 2005
NEVER Too Early
Not for me, nosir! You could do an exit poll on the next election and I'd look it over. So Patrick Ruffini's 2008 Straw Polls are right up my street.
I wouldn't put too much stock in them, but I think the skeptics are wrong to discard the results entirely. As I read the results, they scream:
1) Weak Bench!
There's still plenty of time for a candidate to catch our imagination, but I don't see anybody in the basic slate who excites me at all. I'd take a bullet for Rudy Giuliani, the "mayor of America" and I'd certainly support him, but he has too many things to overcome: the health and family issues that pulled him out of the '00 Senate race, plus some positions on social issues that are at odds with the GOP base. I just don't see this guy winning.
2) Fantasy Candidates
Hence the need for a "fantasy candidate" section with three solid picks: Gov. Jeb Bush, VP Dick Cheney, and Secretary Condoleezza Rice. I'll work for any of those, But Senator Allen and Gov. Romney will have to earn more than tepid support (I started out tepid on then Gov. George Bush). If Senator Frist is the nominee, I may switch to the Democrats...
3) Senate-itis
Allen's a good guy, McCain could get me, Jon Kyl, Mitch McConnell -- I love Senators! But they make terrible candidates (cf. John Kerry). Just say "NO!"
I'm surprised that the GOP bench seems weaker. The Ds have the Senate-itis problem worse than the Rs (Sen. Biden? Yawn.) But Senator Clinton and Gov. Richards both look very strong. And they seem to have an okay second tier with Gov. Vilsack and some folks I am ignoring.
Two funny things on the Junior Senator from New York:
-- She doesn't suffer from Senate-itis; she's the Democrat queen. Senator Edwards, as a one-term Senator, was too inexperienced for VP but those charges will not stick to Sen. Clinton.
-- People talk of the Giuliani-Clinton matchup as a "subway series." I guess that she has completely shed the carpet-bagger thing. It frustrates me that the MSM goes so easy on her, but I like to live in a vibrant nation where one can remake himself or herself in another image -- Go Yankees!